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CFDs are they the devils spawn?

There has been some chatter on our mentor forum about CFDs – as such I thought it worthwhile to reproduce an article I wrote for the Trading Game Newsletter following the collapse of Sonray last year.

 

Over the past few weeks much of the chatter from brokers and others on the supply side of trading has been about the collapse of Sonray Securities which has left several thousand investors up the creek.

Much of this chatter has been about the evils of CFDs and how they are, if the commentary is to be believed, on the verge of bringing down civilisation as we know it. In truth much of the commentary has been largely self-serving, mostly ill informed and in some cases downright stupid.

I want to look at each of the concerns and provide a sensible rebuttal to each.

1. ASIC is so concerned about CFDs that they are putting out a position paper, which will look at the leverage and complexity of CFD trading.

There are several points that need to be addressed with this argument. Firstly, ASIC’s  role in looking at market conduct means that it puts out guidelines all the time for all market participants, so this in itself is nothing new. It is a good opening line and does a lot to get attention and perhaps stir the pot a little but it is not a true and accurate view of the role ASIC takes in overseeing markets.

For example, take a trip to the ASIC website and you will see a plethora of guidelines and reports on a variety of topics including reviewing the variations to the license of the ASX and SFE. Such reviews are a normal part of business. It does not mean that ASIC will immediately shut down either body.

Secondly, the notion of leverage is a misleading one for several reasons. Option, FX and futures trading can and does offer leverage of an equivalent size to CFD trading. Therefore, there is nothing actually new within this. Margin loan accounts can offer similar advantage to CFD trading on some shares due to the higher margin charged by CFD firms on some shares.

Leverage itself is not the issue – it is how traders use this leverage that is the problem. As much as regulators try, you cannot outlaw stupidity. There will also be people who are better off with their mums giving them fifty cents play lunch money tied into a hanky and stuck in their pocket. This way they cannot get into too much trouble but it is not the job of the regulator to be everyone’s mum.

Finally, CFDs are less complex than either options or futures; in fact, it is easier to get a trader to understand CFDs than it is to bring them up to speed with the notion of options trading. For example if you were buying a NAB CFD and you had traded NAB shares before then the transaction is very familiar to you. However, if you were trading NAB call options you will need to become familiar with option pricing, option market dynamics and the lack of an ability to place a stop within domestic option markets.

The implication within this argument is that CFDs are too complex and too dangerous for the average investor to master so they should stick to traditional shares where at least they own part of the company and brokers pick up your commission on the way through. As a counterpoint to this, consider that domestic fund managers invest only in traditional equities and many of them are still showing losses of the order of 40% on their funds post the GFC so it is not the instrument that is too blame. It is the end user.

2.      CFD providers suck people in with slick advertising and convince them there is money to be made. Their platforms are flashy and easy to use so this encourages people to trade.

To be honest I do not see any difference between the advertising of CFD providers and that of traditional brokers. All talk about their platforms and all are constrained by the same legislation as to what can and cannot be said in advertisements.

With regard to platforms, I would have thought that all domestic brokers would aspire to have easy to use interfaces as this would attract people to use them. However, this is not true. Most of the brokers’ platforms are arcane and are no more than slightly tricked up versions of what was floating around dealing desks in the early 1990s. WebIress, which is a popular infrastructure for many brokers, does not seem to have evolved much in a decade. I would also hasten to add that the majority of brokers still refuse to allow the placing of a stop loss position whereas with CFD providers this is a given.

3.      Sonray placed their clients’ funds into a pooled account so that traders with funds in their accounts have now become unsecured creditors.

That is true, it is unusual that most (read almost all) brokers, and CFD providers put client’s monies into segregated accounts that are secured against such events because they are segregated. However, if this were a traditional broker who did this the result would be the same.

4.      CFD firms are simply counterparties to your transaction so that if you lose they win. Therefore, they will set out to make certain you lose.

This is a somewhat disingenuous argument that I have seen raised by brokers because it misses the point that when you do an options or futures trade you will most likely be dealing with a counterparty. Market makers are an integral aspect of both options and futures markets. These markets would come to a complete halt without market makers.

However, the most disturbing part of this argument is the notion that somehow CFD providers set a different price to the market for a given equity and in some way manipulate that price so that it does not reflect the reality of the market. This is simply nonsense for a variety of reasons. First and foremost is that it would most likely be regarded as a form of market manipulation and would bring ASIC down on you like a ton of bricks.

Secondly, it shows a complete misunderstanding of how markets work. If there is a price dislocation between two identical instruments then that price differential can be exploited. For example if I were trading BHP and the market was quoting $37.30/32 and the CFD provider was quoting $37.40/42 then I could buy BHP on the market at $37.32 and sell it at $37.40 and I could do this all day locking in the $0.08  spread. This is known as an arbitrage and arbitrage trades have disappeared with the advent of the high-speed PC based trading.

If dislocations in the market are found then they are immediately exploited and they disappear. Think of it in terms of finding a short cut to work. The first day you do it there is nobody else on the road, the second day you do it the road is clogged with others. Your short cut arbitrage has disappeared.

Implicit within this argument is an inability to understand that it is the market that sets the price not the CFD provider.

5.      CFDs are banned in the US.

So are single share futures but they are offered almost universally on all other futures exchanges. To offer a statement that something is banned in the US so it is a good reason to be wary of them is to use a style of argument known as a red herring. The basic argument is about the collapse of a broking firm that offered CFDs to retail clients.

As I said in my introduction, a lot of this talk is self-serving and in broking circles is known as talking your book. Traditional brokers have cause for concern over the popularity of CFDs – their rise has been both dramatic and all encompassing.

In the UK, turnover on CFDs outstrips the turnover on the FTSE. This situation could have been avoided if brokers were more proactive in their approach and embraced such challenging ideas like a decent online platform, research that actually meant something and new-fangled concepts such as stop loss and contingent orders.

However, to offer a blanket condemnation of instrument because a broker blows up misses the bigger picture completely. Instruments are not the cause of brokers blowing up. Sonray’s problems may have arisen for a number of reasons, which will only become apparent when the liquidators have done their job.

However, I can guarantee you that the auditors will not say that they blew up because they offered CFDs as a tool, just as any of the traditional local brokers who have blown up did not do so because they offered share trading to clients.

Thus, whilst CFDs continue to be a threat to local brokers it is worth remembering that the world’s entire economic system was almost brought down by traditional bankers and brokers.

Postscript – As was thought by many inside the industry at the time Sonrays collapse was brought about by plain good old fashioned theft

Japanese Engineers.

I have a leaking pipe on my nature strip and it has been leaking for ages. I reported the problem to Yarra Valley water six months ago and they sent out a bloke who in a somewhat disinterested manner stuck a wooden stake into the ground with a little flag on it.

When asked what the little flag meant he said that means I have looked at it. I said so does that mean you are going to fix it and his response was not my job is to look at it.

The image below is of a highway destroyed by the recent tsunami. The Japanese did not come out and drive a stake into the ground with a little flag on it as if they were some street theatre reenactment of Neil Armstong landing on the moon and then wait for the magic fix shit fairies to come out. They actually fixed it.

That’s right they got of their arses and in the midst of their country taking a jump to the right they fixed a friggen highway. Things would run a lot better in Australia if we could opt for the old Roman tradition of dealing with incompetence. If a Roman Legion did some daft, played up or were just useless the commanders would take every tenth legionnaire out of the line and cut their heads off. Hence the word decimate.

I will we could decimate most of our service providers – might actually motivate them to do something.

 

Fricken Zombie Ants

For a geeky bastard like me this is simply gold.

China

Interesting BBC piece on China

Irrational Beings


Within the world of trading one would have an expectation that rationality was a key underlying feature in not only the decisions we made, but also the underlying philosophy that guided market participants in general. As a poor example of this expectation that markets are rational and therefore predictable consider this somewhat inane little puff piece I noticed on the weekend. Unfortunately this article and its expectation is wrong and not a little bit wrong – it is wrong on a galactic scale.

Now I know some of you think I am going to give the crystal hugging, Gann line drawing, “I can predict the future” astrology nutbags another belting. Well, you’d be wrong and whilst that is fun, more amusing is the hate mail you get. And what’s more fun than that is the second deluge of hate mail you get after you have written back to tell them their stars should have warned them that someone was going to slag them off. It’s at this point you understand why such people should not be allowed to run with scissors and are reduced to the embarrassment of having their mother write their name on their undies and sew five cents into the corner of their handkerchief.

However, I digress, the lack of rationality I want to examine pertains to what I feel are certain interconnected myths within the market that often hold sway over a trader’s subconscious without them realizing it.

Market Myth One

“I am due for a winner”.

This falls into what I call football statistics – everyone has heard a football coach or commentator state that such and such team is due for a win. For a start who says so – wins and losses are not divided up pre season and the handed out when some divine force takes pity on a team.

Traders fall for exactly the same mentality and believe that after a series of losses that they are due for a win as if the market will take pity on them and throw them a bone. Consider a study done with 40 PhD’s who in a simulation were given $10,000 to trade. The rules of the game were simple when you won your return was equal to your initial stake. So if I bet $1,000 and won I got my stake back plus $1,000. The odds of being successful in the simulation were 60%.

Of the 40 involved only two made money – the rest went bust. The prime reason for their failure was their inability to understand probability and its role in trading decisions. For example after three consecutive losses of $1,000 the majority of traders tripled the size of their next bet in the belief that they were due for a win despite the fact that the odds of the game had not changed.

Traders fall into what I call the Tattslotto fantasy – this fantasy says that traders/investors/gamblers will overweight the likelihood of a favourable outcome. Yet if you read the profiles of successful traders you find that they tend to do the opposite – the overweight the negative and are constantly on the lookout for the market proving them wrong.

You don’t have to be a master statistician to trade but you do have to understand that the rules of the game don’t change just because you are playing it.

Market Myth Two

“I am special”.

Only in the eyes of your parents is this true – to the market you are just another player who will get carried along to wherever the market is going. My name for this malady is “the myth of individual specialness” or “I am little sunbeam”.

Interestingly this has a lot in common with the first myth. I find this myth to be particularly prevalent in people who are attracted to intra day trading within FX markets. All the available data says that the majority of daytraders lose money – they then go nuts and shoot everyone around them, but that’s a side issue.

Despite being told this and being shown quantitative evidence that their chances are slim, people still insist on trying it and the reason they don’t believe the statistics is because they believe they are special and the laws of probability don’t apply to them. Consider an analogy. If I told you that the next time you crossed the road without using a pedestrian crossing that there was an 80% of you being killed, I am fairly certain you would go out of your way to find a controlled crossing. Yet in trading this sort of logic flies right out the window.

As a side issue, people who lack critical thinking or who engage in magical thinking will tend to cling more strongly to their beliefs after being shown evidence to the contrary.

Market Myth Three

“I must never lose money”.

Trading is a profession where losing money in inevitable – it is inevitable that you will have losing trades. However, this is not a catastrophe since there is no relationship between the number of times you are correct and the amount of money you make. You see, the market doesn’t reward your ego. It doesn’t care how many trades you get right. What it cares about is how much you lose on the ones you get wrong because this is the determinant of your success.

The ability to take losses reveals in the individual a knowledge that trading is simply a numbers game and that each individual is at the mercy of these numbers. This is not a bad thing since it enables you to surrender control for the need for prediction. This is why I believe that prediction is a fool’s errand. Not only is it impossible but it sets the trader up for continual disappointment followed by an often slow agonising death as a trader.

Fricken Zombie Ants

For a geeky bastard like me this is simply gold.

Japanese Engineers.

I have a leaking pipe on my nature strip and it has been leaking for ages. I reported the problem to Yarra Valley water six months ago and they sent out a bloke who in a somewhat disinterested manner stuck a wooden stake into the ground with a little flag on it.

When asked what the little flag meant he said that means I have looked at it. I said so does that mean you are going to fix it and his response was not my job is to look at it.

The image below is of a highway destroyed by the recent tsunami. The Japanese did not come out and drive a stake into the ground with a little flag on it as if they were some street theatre reenactment of Neil Armstong landing on the moon and then wait for the magic fix shit fairies to come out. They actually fixed it.

 

That’s right they got of their arses and in the midst of their country taking a jump to the right they fixed a friggen highway. Things would run a lot better in Australia if we could opt for the old Roman tradition of dealing with incompetence. If a Roman Legion did some daft, played up or were just useless the commanders would take every tenth legionnaire out of the line and cut their heads off. Hence the word decimate.

I will we could decimate most of our service providers – might actually motivate them to do something.

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