You don’t pay for your house in gold……
Previously I had talked about a long trade on the Dow I was running – nothing new there and the rationale and management of the trade was hardly revolutionary.
However, I did something profoundly f#%^en stupid – I transposed a digit on my stop and got pinged out by a spike because my stop was in the wrong place. I have to admit I have not made an error on an order in over 20 years…..but its still a dim thing to do.
So what now?
Obviously I would prefer not to be out of the damned trade but it is what it is so I have to opt for Plan B which is to wait for another signal. This sounds simple in practice but defining a new signal is somewhat more difficult. The most obvious thing to do is to wait for a breach of the last high at the 13,365 mark.
The Economist has put together a timely guide to all those idiots who predicted the end of the world.
Tony Hsieh of Zappos – compare this place to the places you might have worked at.
From The Economist……
The mediocrity of the hedgies’ recent performance is in part the result of the industry’s massive growth. Whereas in the past it was plausible that hotshots like George Soros could spot market anomalies, several thousand managers in an industry with $2 trillion of assets under management are very unlikely all to be able to earn spectacular returns. There will always be a few managers who do well, of course, but there is no reliable way of identifying them in advance, and past performance is a poor guide to future returns. John Paulson, the manager who made a fortune out of the subprime-mortgage crisis, has performed dismally since the start of 2011.