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Aston Martin Vanquish Volante

Hard top is a better looking beast I think

Its Friday

Physics Envy and Economic Theor

From the videos description –

Economists were seduced by physics because it made their claims seem more scientific. Their belief was in the concept of equilibrium, in which it would be impossible to profit from trading around a circle of goods or a circle of currencies without actually producing anything. Of course, that is possible, and that did happen, and that’s because you’re never really at equilibrium.

Still cant get over the fact they hand out Nobel Prizes for economics yet not for mathematics.

An Advantaged Metabolic State: Human Performance, Resilience & Health

This is an interesting piece and Peter Attia is an interesting fellow. Having graduated as an aeronautical engineer he went back to school to pursue a career in medicine.

I dont fall completely into the camp that carbohydrates are totally evil (I like chocolate too much) and I have also found that a ketogenic state is not good for my lifting or my hitting. I suffer an extreme loss in power. But my observation of friends and family is that they would function a hell of a lot better on a lower carbohydrate diet. It seems to me that just the mere act of cutting out refined foods would make a tremendous difference to the health burden they impose upon themselves and by extension the community at large.

Returns And Relative Strength

I came across this chart from Bespoke.

When I saw this file in its orignal context it seemed to imply that a higher relative strength equalled a higher return and that there was a sharp distinction between the returns possible as a function of the size of a given instrument.

I wasn’t able to recreate Bespokes data in its original form but I wondered if I could build a rough analog based upon actual returns. One of the good things about the US market is that they have an index for everything. So I looked at the S&P range of indices and found that I could easily map a large scale index (S&P500) a mid cap index (S&P400 MidCap) and a small cap index (S&P600 SmallCap).

This approach does have some problems  but if the aim is to get a quick and dirty comparison between large, mid and small caps in terms of their relative returns it serves the purpose.

You can see that it shows a different story to the chart generated by Bespoke.

I Imagined We Are Supposed To Be Surprised

There are two reasons not to listen to anything the finance media says. The first is that they have no idea what they are talking about (see earlier piece on gold predictions) The second reason can be found below.

Charles Payne, a contributor and frequent guest host for Fox News and Fox Business, was compensated to promote the stocks of at least three companies since joining Fox. The practice of compensated stock endorsements is currently prohibited by Fox rules, and resulted in the recent contract termination of contributor Tobin Smith.

According to a Media Matters review, Payne was paid $40,000 to promote The Brainy Brands Company, “$25,000 by a third party” to promote NXT Nutritionals Holdings, and an undisclosed amount for a “consulting arrangement” to promote Generex Biotechnology Corporate.

The share prices of the companies Payne was paid to tout are now essentially worthless.

Payne forecasted lofty gains for investors who bought those stocks. He projected in 2011 that Brainy Brands could hit $4.50 a share in three years. At the time of the pitch, Brainy Brands was trading at around $1.35 — it’s now below 1 cent. Payne claimed in 2009 that NXT could “turn $10,000 into $25,000.” At the time, NXT was trading for $2.00 — it’s now below 1/10th of a cent. And Payne claimed in November 2007 that Generex, then at $1.58, was a long term “screaming buy” which could hit $7.00. It’s now trading at roughly 4 cents.

 

More here at Media Matters

The 8 Worst Gold Price Predictions We’ve Ever Heard

Business Insider..…..While gold prices were on their ascent, we heard some bullish calls from high-profile Wall Streeters that would make dotcom era equity analysts blush. For whatever reason, gold ultra-bulls argued that the precious metal would be worth multiples of where it is today.  We’ve heard targets from $5,000 to $46,000.

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