The dominance of US equities has been one of the most significant features of financial markets over the last decade. The sheer magnitude of outperformance makes it easy to claim that it has simply been a case of an in-vogue market enjoying a substantial and unsustainable valuation re-rating, but that’s not quite true. Although a…
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Interestingly this post segues nicely from the previous one on Daniel Kahneman and the difficulties we have with thinking of the world rationally. Gold is the perfect exemplar of traders who cannot reason. The chart below is a daily chart of gold which shows that in the last month, gold has risen about 9.2%Its not…
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Trading is a profession that taxes our ability to view problems rationally and in a probabilistic manner. Daniel Kahneman highlights this issue in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow. As expected the majority of poorly performing traders believe it is about having the right coloured lines on their charts of hanging off every pronouncement made…
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There is endless chatter by traders as to the need for an edge but very rarely does anyone either explain what an edge actually is or put forward examples of how to build them. In this video I define what an edge is, give a real world example from an unrelated highly competitive arena, and…
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Over the last turbulent century, the global economy has suffered the shockwaves of recessions and depressions, bubbles and unchecked investor euphoria. And with the UK’s spring budget announced this week, we ask the question – have we learnt from the economic mistakes of the past?
Want to build influence with ideas and simple writing? Look no further than Howard Marks. Most smart people use big words and plastic jargon to reinforce the barrier between themselves and “the common folk.” Howard, on the other hand, breaks down this barrier, and that’s why his ideas are so influential (and why he’s Warren…
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Gold lifted suddenly during Friday’s session – this quite naturally caught everyone’s eye. But as with all things in trading, there is a right way and a wrong way to profit from any given move. A quick hint – buying gold might not be the best way.
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There is no doubt that trading is a difficult business – there is the illusion presented by the internet and then there is the reality of managing a business day after day. And as with all business progress is not linear – it has ebbs and flows. Unlike the majority of other businesses in trading…
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I was struggling. I was in my competitive running days, in the best shape of my life, knocking out workouts I couldn’t imagine, but races were not going well. I just couldn’t put it together. I gave myself one last shot before packing in the bags for that season. In two weeks I was going…
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