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  • Freediving Is the Lung-Crushing, Mind-Altering Path to Inner Peace
  • Managing Mistakes

    Somewhat appropriate given a cock up I made during the week….  

    Managing Mistakes
  • Trend Following Is Dead…blah.. blah.. blah…

    Before I head off to Fiji for a week I was cleaning out an image archive I keep when I came across this chart of Poseidon from the 1960’s. Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Despite what people say nothing ever changes…..

    Trend Following Is Dead…blah.. blah.. blah…
  • Bulls, Bears & Charlatans

    The word ‘charlatan’ is supposedly derived from the Italian word ciarlare, which means ‘to babble.’ Some of the original charlatans were confidence men who would prey upon people’s misunderstandings about healthcare before modern medicine existed. There used to be traveling medicine shows where the salesperson would make promises of magic elixirs that would heal all wounds. It… Read more…

    Bulls, Bears & Charlatans

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Recent Articles

Freediving Is the Lung-Crushing, Mind-Altering Path to Inner Peace

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More here – Bloomberg

Managing Mistakes

Somewhat appropriate given a cock up I made during the week….
 

Trend Following Is Dead…blah.. blah.. blah…

Before I head off to Fiji for a week I was cleaning out an image archive I keep when I came across this chart of Poseidon from the 1960’s.

Screen Shot 2014-06-17 at 9.53.56 pm

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

Despite what people say nothing ever changes…..

Bulls, Bears & Charlatans

The word ‘charlatan’ is supposedly derived from the Italian word ciarlare, which means ‘to babble.’

Some of the original charlatans were confidence men who would prey upon people’s misunderstandings about healthcare before modern medicine existed. There used to be traveling medicine shows where the salesperson would make promises of magic elixirs that would heal all wounds. It was only after they had moved on to the next town that people would realize they’d been swindled as these tonics were worthless forms of medicine (this is also where the term snake oil salesman comes from).

A charlatan has also been described as someone who professes to have abilities or expertise that they do not have. The term ‘charlatan’ is perfect for the finance industry because it can attract people pretending — whether they realize it or not — to know more than they actually do.

More here – A Wealth of Common Sense

PS: I was going to write something on exactly the same headline but as you can see someone beat me to it…..

Habits vs Goals

“First forget inspiration.
Habit is more dependable.
Habit will sustain you whether you’re inspired or not.
Habit is persistence in practice.”

— Octavia Butler

More here – Farnham Street

The Reality of Statistics

I snipped this table from Business Insider – it shows the likelihood of various sorts of maladies befalling the average American. Apart from the appalling statistic for gun violence my guess is that it is roughly transferable to Australia.

threat

It highlights the profound disconnect between true risk as expressed as a number that is harsh and immutable and our perception of risk. Granted our perception of risk is amped up by Politicians who wish to distract us and news outlet who simply want to shock us. As an example here is a surprise poll you can spring on people at parties. Get them to name the most deadly animal in Australia – this is a particularly fun exercise to play with foreigners who believe that everything that walks, crawls, flies or swims in this country is out to kill them. The answer to the question is surprisingly horses between 2000 and 2010 there were 77 horse related deaths, in a distant second behind horses were cows with 33 deaths for the same period. Ask yourself the question when was the last time you heard a public service announcement warning you to be vigilant about horses – my guess is never.

The point here is our perception of risk is not the reality of risk and this is true in trading. In trading we bring a veritable cornucopia of vague ideas about risk to the table. Yet in reality none of them are real. For example I know traders who will not invest because of the coming crash – I might add this crash has apparently been coming for about a decade. Granted they might be right one day but nobody ever got rich by waiting for that one day to appear. And this is the point of the lesson, accept risk and play or dont accept risk and dont play.

Old School Cool

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