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  • Surviving Anxiety

    Let’s say you’re sitting in an audience and I’m at the lectern. Here’s what I’ve likely done to prepare. Four hours or so ago, I took my first half milligram of Xanax. (I’ve learned that if I wait too long to take it, my fight-or-flight response kicks so far into overdrive that medication is not… Read more…

  • S&P 500 Day By Day…..

    I came across this image on Bespoke – those folks who generate arrays of dazzling data very few of which are in any way helpful to market participants. It shows the daily change on the S&P 500 since January and I have no idea why this would be of interest but I thought I would… Read more…

  • Shiller Says `Easy to Beat the Market’ Long Term

    Talk is interesting – host is a pain in the arse.    

  • Gold

    I posted the chart below in the MP Alumni forum last week.   I did so for the same reason someone drops a stone in a pond – they want to see where the ripples go. Often the issue with trading or investing is a closed mind or a mind that is set on a… Read more…

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Surviving Anxiety

Let’s say you’re sitting in an audience and I’m at the lectern. Here’s what I’ve likely done to prepare. Four hours or so ago, I took my first half milligram of Xanax. (I’ve learned that if I wait too long to take it, my fight-or-flight response kicks so far into overdrive that medication is not enough to yank it back.) Then, about an hour ago, I took my second half milligram of Xanax and perhaps 20 milligrams of Inderal. (I need the whole milligram of Xanax plus the Inderal, which is a blood-pressure medication, or beta-blocker, that dampens the response of the sympathetic nervous system, to keep my physiological responses to the anxious stimulus of standing in front of you—the sweating, trembling, nausea, burping, stomach cramps, and constriction in my throat and chest—from overwhelming me.) I likely washed those pills down with a shot of scotch or, more likely, vodka, the odor of which is less detectable on my breath. Even two Xanax and an Inderal are not enough to calm my racing thoughts and to keep my chest and throat from constricting to the point where I cannot speak; I need the alcohol to slow things down and to subdue the residual physiological eruptions that the drugs are inadequate to contain. In fact, I probably drank my second shot—yes, even though I might be speaking to you at, say, 9 in the morning—between 15 and 30 minutes ago, assuming the pre-talk proceedings allowed me a moment to sneak away for a quaff.

More here – The Atlantic

S&P 500 Day By Day…..

I came across this image on Bespoke – those folks who generate arrays of dazzling data very few of which are in any way helpful to market participants.

Screen Shot 2014-04-22 at 2.35.04 pmIt shows the daily change on the S&P 500 since January and I have no idea why this would be of interest but I thought I would take it further and look at more data. So the chart below looks at the average daily change on the S&P500 going back eight years.

Screen Shot 2014-04-22 at 3.02.23 pm

 

As you can see adding a little more data presents a different picture, this is to be expected since a few months is a very narrow time frame over which to analyze anything.

The crucial question is does this information tell us anything and the blindingly obvious answer is not a friggen thing and this is the issue with trading news/data very little of it is actually relevant to your decision making. It looks nice and some of it is undoubtedly clever but it doesnt tell you anything and in some ways probably interferes with the trading decision.

 

Shiller Says `Easy to Beat the Market’ Long Term

Talk is interesting – host is a pain in the arse.

 
 

Gold

I posted the chart below in the MP Alumni forum last week.

Screen Shot 2014-04-22 at 8.18.28 am

 

I did so for the same reason someone drops a stone in a pond – they want to see where the ripples go. Often the issue with trading or investing is a closed mind or a mind that is set on a particular course. This comes back to the notion of the fixed narrative that I have mentioned many times before. As I said in the post that accompanied this image. If I were to define what being a trader was it would be the recognition of opportunities as they present themselves and to take advantages of those opportunities in a manner that offers the potential for profit whilst managing risk. Most situations present you with some form of opportunity, sometimes that opportunity is blindingly obvious and other times it is the opportunity to sit and wait. To take no action is an action.

With respect to this chart I see several things that may prompt me to take action in the future. For example, if gold were to drop below the 1270 mark I would consider going short. My view is that the bottom of the channel at around 1180 is wide enough for this to profitable if it followed through.  Conversely, if gold moved back up I would consider going long.

The central issue here is to be aware of opportunities as they unfold – too many traders sit and stare at the screen waiting for the market to actually tell them what to do. I am certain some traders sit there and wish the market would also take the trade for them so they didnt have to think. more importantly, so they didnt have to take a risk.

28 Killer Home Trading Desks From All Around The World

Apparently I have far too few screens and need to pull up my socks

 

This Guy Got $58 Million for 15 Months of Work

Henrique de Castro was booted as COO by Marissa Mayer after she personally poached him from Google about 15 months earlier. Mayer said de Castro “was not a fit and that’s a regrettable conclusion,” but he still walked with $58 million in salary, bonuses and stock.

Source – Time

I could be twice as incompetent in half the time for that sort of money. The interesting thing about this is according to this article Yahoo is worth approximately zero as a business. So my guess is that everyone from the CEO down is overpaid.

Ferrari F12 vs Lamborghini Aventador vs Aston Vanquish

 
 

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