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  • The 25 Most Influential Artists

    In national security, social network analysis is used to identify potential terrorists. In marketing, it can uncover the Instagram influencers who are best positioned to sell a company’s product. But social network theory—the study of how different people or things interact with one another, often revealing the most influential and well-connected people among a certain population—can also,… Read more…

    The 25 Most Influential Artists
  • Even The Smartest…….

    I can bet you every teenager since the age of the invention of the mass produced car has through that they invented having sex in the back of a car. This is simply the way our cultural memory works – we are disconnected in many ways from the knowledge and experience of those who have… Read more…

    Even The Smartest…….
  • The Last of the Iron Lungs

    Martha Lillard spends half of every day with her body encapsulated in a half-century old machine that forces her to breathe. Only her head sticks out of the end of the antique iron lung. On the other side, a motorized lever pulls the leather bellows, creating negative pressure that induces her lungs to suck in… Read more…

    The Last of the Iron Lungs
  • 39 Things About Life I Wish I Had Known 10 Years Ago

      About two years ago I started a list called “Things I wish I had known earlier” in my journal. I initially came up with 25 lessons about life, career, love, and relationships. Things I’ve learned from mentors, books, friends, readers, etc. I created the list for myself because I realized that I forgot important… Read more…

    39 Things About Life I Wish I Had Known 10 Years Ago

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What Would You Prefer?

I have been spending some more time playing with the data set below which I looked at last week within the context of long term returns for the All Ordinaries.

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One of the issues that is difficult for traders to come to grips with is the lumpiness of returns that are generated by trading systems. I dont know of any trading system that generates regular returns aside from much touted option writing systems and these generally lead to traders suffering from the old maxim of eating like birds and shitting like elephants. Using the returns above I decided to look at the difference between a system that had the above returns and one which every year simply generated the average market return of 9.8%. The results for such a system can be seen in the table below.

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As you can see it takes a good two decades before any serious differential appears but once it does appear it becomes extreme.

However, table doesn’t quite convey the magnitude of the difference between accepting a given flt return each year and the returns generated by the lumpiness of the market so I decided to graph the returns. I have had to graph them separately because of the disparity in values between the two systems.

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In simple terms these graphs ask the question – do you want to be rich or comfortable?

 

THE DISMAL SCIENCE REMAINS DISMAL

WHEN HRISTOS DOUCOULIAGOS was a young economist in the mid-1990s, he got interested in all the ways economics was wrong about itself—bias, underpowered research, statistical shenanigans. Nobody wanted to hear it. “I’d go to seminars and people would say, ‘You’ll never get this published,’” Doucouliagos, now at Deakin University in Australia, says. “They’d say, ‘this is bordering on libel.’”

Now, though? “The norms have changed,” Doucouliagos says. “People are interested in this, and interested in the science.” He should know—he’s one of the reasons why. In the October issue of the prestigious Economic Journal, a paper he co-authored is the centerpiece among a half-dozen papers on the topic of economics’ own private replication crisis, a variation of the one hitting disciplines from psychology to chemistry to neuroscience.

More here – Wired

All Ordinaries Distribution Of Returns

I have been having a bit of a play with the All Ordinaries yearly returns since 1901 and I cobbled together the table below which I have coloured red and blue. Red is those years where the return is below the average of 9.8% and blue is those years of above average return.

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What is interesting to me is that there have only been 41 years of below average returns – the clear majority of returns are above average. This once again demonstrates the interesting upward bias within the index. Allied to this is the extreme over correction in the market following a series of down years (bear market). Following down years the market springs back with above average gains.

Billionaire Jeff Bezos: Amazon’s Journey to Now And Its Future

What Sort Of Porsche Costs $1.1M?

A Singer restoration of course……

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Old School Cool

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PS: If you are too young to know what these are then sadly you have missed out on a world  of adventure.

COMEDY WILDLIFE PHOTOGRAPHY AWARDS

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The Trading Game Pty Ltd (ACN: 099 576 253) is an AFSL holder (Licence no: 468163). This information is correct at the time of publishing and may not be reproduced without formal permission. It is of a general nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any of the information you should consider its appropriateness, having regard to your own objectives, financial situation and needs.