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Dow – Update

Price is still meandering around the initial fail point. One of the mistakes I see traders make is that they see a chart like the one below and instantly drop into confirmation bias mode simply because price looks as if it might be moving higher.

Current price action doesn’t really confirm whether this trade is right or wrong – that will only come when the trade is closed.



  1. Would have thought the first failure at resistance, indicated by the shooting star candle, indicated a stalled up trend and a useful exit point?

    • The issue I would have with that is that price hasnt as of yet failed. Traders are too eager to take money off the table at the slightest hint of something going wring. It is important to remember that prices are not linear – trends do not begin in the bottom left of the screen and head in a straight line to the top right.

  2. Thanks for your feedback insights Chris, much appreciated.

    • One of the problems with the market is that it in many ways it acts like a teaching trying to teach you to trade badly. For example one lesson I could have taken from this little error was that it was a good thing to run my stops very close becausde I got out at as better price than if I had not made an error.

      The wrong lesson is being reinforced. Unfortunately, many would take this lesson as gospel and spend eternity being filleted by having their stops too close.

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