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So They Got It Wrong Again…..

I got bounced this article by Michael Pascoe for comment. To save you reading it the gist is this. People who have been making predictions about the death of China seemed to have cocked it up. I am not certain what we are surprised about, the fact that people making predictions cock it up or people who make predictions about a country that releases dodgy figures cocked it up. Take your pick……

As evidence of this the article contains this chart.

This apparently shows that the RBA’s forecasts on China has been wrong. I hate to labour the point but I will any way. Anyone who has read any of the literature of decision making theory and the nature of prediction will not be surprised that the RBA and others have gotten it wrong. They will continue to get it wrong as will everyone else who makes predictions about dynamic, chaotic systems.

The only chart that matters is the one below since this is actually what the market thinks and that is the only thing that matters.



  1. Which might Segue to Global Warming Forecasts. Highly dynamic systems, very fragile forecasts – but a great way for governments to raise tax

    Hence, we are told that the folk who can’t get the weather right for next Wednesday know what it will be in 100 years time

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