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Why Do This?

In the past I have written about prediction and the fact that we are absolutely crap at predicting the future. Despite this and despite the ease with which people are held to account for their predictions we still get this sort of stuff.

This graphic tracks the predictions about the price of oil made by a gentleman called Dan Yergin. For those who dont know Dan Yergin is according to his entry on IHS he is apparently

is a highly respected authority on energy, international politics, and economics. Yergin is a Pulitzer Prize winner and recipient of the United States Energy Award for “lifelong achievements in energy and the promotion of international understanding.” He is both a world-recognized author and a business leader, as well as executive vice president of IHS.

In its own words IHS offers the following –

With our rich history, our vision, mission and values, and the diversity of our suppliers, employees and customers, IHS stands on a firm foundation as the leading provider of information in the global market and economy.

You can form your own view on the validity of this.


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