Following on from the posting on why fund managers fail to generate positive alpha . I thought I would look at the notion of cognitive blindness and emotional overconfidence within the domain of prediction. This was prompted by set of predictions I came across for this year by a group known as Bespoke who have…
I have written before about the possibility that a lack of sleep might be interfering with your ability to make rational decisions whilst trading. However, it now appears that action at the other end may also be playing a role in your inability to be a calm considered and profitable trend follower. According to a…
I have written before about the possibility that a lack of sleep might be interfering with your ability to make rational decisions whilst trading. However, it now appears that action at the other end may also be playing a role in your inability to be a calm considered and profitable trend follower. According to a…
Some observations. 1. For 1500 years the maximum size of cities was capped at around 450,000 inhabitants. 2. China has always had a massive population advantage over the…
Some observations. 1. For 1500 years the maximum size of cities was capped at around 450,000 inhabitants. 2. China has always had a massive population advantage over the rest of the world – this advantage remains today. Although whether it is always an economic advantage can be questioned. 3. By 1900 you can see the…
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