I thought in light of the events in Paris that it would be instructive to see how markets behave after such event. I have grabbed four what I would consider headline terror events and marked them on the relevant index. The situation with the September 11 attacks is that they took place during the collapse…
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When psychologists are asked which findings in their field will pass a replication attempt, their predictions prove little better than flipping a coin. But if they play a betting market on the same question, the aggregate results give a fairly good prediction of which studies will hold up if repeated, a prediction experiment suggests1. The…
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Does it make sense to talk about “rational people”? That is, is there a sub-population of individuals who consistently exhibit less cognitive bias and better judgment under uncertainty than average people? Do these people have the dispositions we’d intuitively associate with more thoughtful habits of mind? (Are they more flexible and deliberative, less dogmatic and…
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