As the daily predictions of the coming housing apocalypse grow increasingly strident there is some natural push back from the sell side of the industry who have adopted an equal but opposite position. As I said before I do have some sympathy from property investors because the price discovery in their markets is very poor…
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The $A was floated 35 years ago. I remember vividly all the predictions of doom and gloom that were apparently going to be visited upon us Although these predictions did largely come from conservatives who were still annoyed that we had moved to a decimal system and dropped the pound, Since then it has been…
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I want to ask you a question. How many hours per day do you think? “I never thought about that.” So let me get this straight. You’re thinking all the time, and yet, you never think about how much time you spend thinking. That sounds like an addiction to me. I know, because I’m addicted to thinking too.…
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It hasn’t been the best of years for most asset classes – Most of the worlds equities markets have had a a negative return to date and based upon the current degree of gyrating I am not certain it will get much better in the next three weeks.
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I am intrigued at the constant doom and gloom talk around the property market, not because I have any particular view on property since what I know about property could be written on a gnats arse with a six inch nail. However, I do know a lot about markets and systems and their natural ebbs…
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Overconfidence can have a profound impact on our decision making, but can be difficult to acknowledge and even harder to rectify. It also seems likely that overconfidence is a particularly pernicious bias in the investment industry, for the following reasons: – Selection bias: There is probably a selection bias into front office investment management roles…
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In the past week a paper titled Dynamical Variety of Shapes in Financial Multifractality has been doing the rounds. The abstract of the paper states – The concept of multifractality offers a powerful formal tool to filter out a multitude of the most relevant characteristics of complex time series. The related studies thus far presented…
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You stand before three closed doors. The doors are evenly spaced and appear identical, aside from being numbered from 1 to 3. One of the doors conceals a car, while each of the other two doors conceals a goat. The host of this game, Monty Hall, asks you to select a door. If you select the…
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