Quick answer … No To answer this question, we develop new testing methods for identifying superior forecasting skills in settings with arbitrarily many forecasters, outcome variables, and time periods. Our methods allow us to address if any economists had superior forecasting skills for any variables or at any point in time while carefully controlling for…
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Humans are drawn to magical thinking for a variety of reasons, in part, it gives order to where there is chaos and we are very poor at sitting with chaos. It also separates us from others so our belief in our form of magic is a form of tribalism – we have access to an…
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