Overconfidence

A vast array of cognitive biases hamstring trader performance a quick look at any list of these afflictions will offer up the following – Confirmation Bias Hindsight Bias Narrative Fallacy (my favourite) Anchoring Bias Loss Aversion Attribution Bias Overconfidence Bias But if I were to isolate one in particular, it would be overconfidence. The interesting…

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Right Conclusion Wrong Reason

The chart below from Vanguard has been doing the rounds with people trumpeting that locally listed shares outperform listed property trusts. Based on the data presented, this is true, but some have extended it to mean that locally listed shares outperform all property investments. This is not what the chart says—the chart refers to listed…

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Tell The Entire Story

The snip below is of last night’s trading in the US along with a headline. As you can see there is a little bit of handwringing going on. The onset of September has caused a variation of the following graph of monthly returns on the S&P500 to appear on various platforms. It shows that contrary…

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