The sword was suspended in the basement rafters with a message from 1945 still secured to its fittings. My grandfather and I were sitting one floor above it at his kitchen table when an email arrived. It was 9:17 A.M. on Christmas Day in 2021, the Chicago weather too mild, the ground too much of…
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Every so often I get sent an article for comment – these generally turn out to be an exercise in critical thinking more than analysis. It is not difficult to pick apart a general thesis. The issue is that most lack the confidence, skills or experience to do so. We are also programmed to fall…
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If you were to run a competition for the most maligned and misunderstood trading technique in Australia short selling would most likely come out on top. The intriguing thing about this is that not that short selling is misunderstood by uber sooks such as Gerry Harvey but also by market regulators such as ASIC. Who…
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I have been working through Steve Magness’s book Win the Inside Game. Generally, these sorts of self-help books don’t do much for me since they all revolve around basic concepts that any adult who wants to move forward should already have on board. My somewhat harsh interpretation is if you have to get it from…
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Imagine it’s ten years ago and you are assessing the relative merits of market cap weighted exposure to US equities and an equally weighted allocation. Across a range of valuation metrics you can see that the equal weighted index is moderately cheaper. As luck would have it you also have a crystal ball that tells…
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“It’s 10 pm, I’m going to bed,” is what I told the group of friends, teammates, and strangers who were gathered in our house for a get-together during college. It was a Friday night and I had a long run the next morning. For much of my time, I was a bit obsessive. I wanted…
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Market commentary of late has been awash with the use of the word volatility and to flog a dead horse most of the people using the word are using it incorrectly. This misuse is generally a function of ignorance – most who comment on volatility don’t understand what it means. Defined simply volatility is the…
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This is a little quiz. Below is a simple weekly chart of NVDA with a 30-period moving average plotted. Moving averages are simple but effective tools for defining the underlying trend of an instrument. The question is can you spot those times when you should be a buyer of NVDA? If you can you are a…
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The modern world is full of risks, from natural hazards such as flooding to the existential threat of nuclear war, artificial intelligence and climate change. With the scientific and technological progress of the past few centuries, we’ve created new hazards that threaten our very survival and, in this series, emergency planner and disaster recovery expert…
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