Thinking Fast And Slow

Over the years I have noticed some odd similarities between many of the things I do and trading. When I first started in the martial arts I like everyone else thought that there must be some super secret technique and I set out to learn every technique I could. This mythology is actively encouraged by the hierarchy of various martial arts. What would be the point from a business perspective of telling someone that they could effectively defend themselves by learning two or three techniques, controlling themselves and that most of this could be mastered in quite a small amount of time. If you are lucky you either come to the realisation that all you have learned is bullshit and you work out what works or someone hands you your arse and you either quit or once again workout what works and what doesn’t.

Intriguingly the same is true in trading it is also steeped in mysticism and bullshit. You only have to look at an issue of Your Trading Edge to get a sense of this. Proper articles on trading are swamped by rubbish such as Gann, astrology and magic indicators. The sad part is this is what the audience demands nobody wants to be told that they are were they are because thats where they want to be. They would prefer to blame their lack of a magic super secret indicator rather than admit to some internal failing.

The interesting thing is that this has been tested in a semi scientific way. The turtles were given a system which at the time was very effective, yet not all of them made money. Those that were successful seemed to have one thing in common, they took the signals that the system generated and they followed the rules. Those who were unsuccessful did not. Those who were not successful were unsuccessful because of a character flaw.