There are too many lessons in this little tale to unpack in a short space of time. However, when I read this piece for the first time, I was reminded of the role of luck. When vast numbers of traders read these, they will ask the question, “Why hasn’t their account done this?”
The answer is simple – luck. Their account hasn’t done it for the same reason they have bagged first division in the lottery. It is important to note that there is no skill involved in this sort of thing – it is simply putting everything you have on read and continually doubling up hoping that you can ride the wave.
Relative performance is a matter of a small amount of luck plus skill, massive outperformance such as this is purely luck.
What is also apparent is the role of hubris and arrogance that consumes people who confuse luck with skill.
