I have been having a bit of a play with the All Ordinaries yearly returns since 1901 and I cobbled together the table below which I have coloured red and blue. Red is those years where the return is below the average of 9.8% and blue is those years of above average return.
What is interesting to me is that there have only been 41 years of below average returns – the clear majority of returns are above average. This once again demonstrates the interesting upward bias within the index. Allied to this is the extreme over correction in the market following a series of down years (bear market). Following down years the market springs back with above average gains.
CT
Also interesting that three consecutive years of underperformance is unusual – have to go back to 1937 – 41 when there were four years in a row. Not that one is “predicting” anything – as we could either match the 1937 run or not. 🙂
Very much an outlier but we also have not had a sustained period of out performance as we did fro 1917 to 1928.
Time to capitalise in the coming years then.