Survivor bias is a perennial problem in systems testing. Put simply survivor bias is the logical fallacy of ascribing a value to something that has past a given bench mark or hurdle by virtue of longevity. In doing so you overlook those things that have disappeared along the way. For example lets assume I was…
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“Forecasting: the attempt to predict the unknowable by measuring the irrelevant; this task employs most people on Wall Street.” (Brilliant description – wish I had thought of it) The words of Jason Zweig, author of the Devil’s Financial Dictionary, are particularly apt at this time of year. We hear a lot from financial forecasters every…
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The economist J.K. Galbraith once wrote, “Faced with a choice between changing one’s mind and proving there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy with the proof.” Leo Tolstoy was even bolder: “The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of…
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In the 1930s, a German coach named Woldemar Gerschler came up with a novel idea to help runners better manage their time. He discovered that they could accomplish more in a given stretch if they broke it down into discrete chunks of running, followed by brief breaks. For instance, you’ll run faster, farther, and with…
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The rise of China is remarkable. Hint – switch off the sound the background music is bloody irritating.
“How we spend our days,” Annie Dillard memorably wrote in her soul-stretching meditation on the life of presence, “is, of course, how we spend our lives.” And yet most of us spend our days in what Kierkegaard believed to be our greatest source of unhappiness — a refusal to recognize that “busy is a decision”…
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Trail running has long been my happy place. Actually, any form of running enables me to start my day invigorated and ready to go. Regular exercise associates with many upsides. Exercising so that we can live longer is a draw for a few. Most master athletes I have met exercise because they have to. They…
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Norman Triplett was a pioneer in the psychology of magic, and back in 1900, he published a wonderful scientific paper on magic that, among many other things, discusses an experiment on an intriguing magical illusion. A magician sat at a table in front of a group of schoolchildren and threw a ball up in the…
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It’s seven in the morning on the beach in Santa Monica, California. The low sun glints off the waves and the clouds are still golden from the dawn. The view stretches out over thousands of miles of Pacific Ocean. In the distance, white villas of wealthy Los Angeles residents dot the Hollywood hills. Here by…
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