Does it make sense to talk about “rational people”? That is, is there a sub-population of individuals who consistently exhibit less cognitive bias and better judgment under uncertainty than average people? Do these people have the dispositions we’d intuitively associate with more thoughtful habits of mind? (Are they more flexible and deliberative, less dogmatic and…
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Whilst out at lunch the other day I spied a couple reading this article . The article itself is nothing spectacular, it merely notes the fact that one analyst who covers BHP had placed an underweight rating on the stock back in May. Now I freely confess that despite having been a broker I have no idea what…
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We may be seeing the Dunning-Kruger effect in groups. The Dunning-Kruger effect reflects a persistent bias in how we assess our own specific competence in an area. The effect is often summarized (usually for the purpose of snark on an internet exchange) as, “dumb people are too dumb to realize how dumb they…
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