I thought it would be interesting to see how the domestic market has performed over various times frames relative to a grab bag of foreign markets. the charts below are in the following order – one year, six months, three months and one month. On the longer time frames we are rubbish but over the…
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An interesting interview with Marc Adreessen the inventor of Netscape and venture capitalist. He makes the following poiint – What did you do? I just went to college. I did my thing. I came out here in ’94, and Silicon Valley was in hibernation. In high school, I actually thought I was going to have…
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I gave a little it talk last night on complexity within markets and the question arose in the chat afterwards as to how do you know when a trader/advisor/etc is starting to panic about the market. I have a short quick and very complete answer which is based upon my own observation over the past…
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The planning fallacy is related to optimism bias (think Lake Wobegon—where all the children are above average) and self-serving bias (where the good stuff is deemed to be my doing while the bad stuff is always someone else’s fault). We routinely overrate our own capacities and exaggerate our abilities to shape the future. Thus the…
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It may seem liberating to live in a land of infinite choices, but research in decision-making suggests otherwise. In a classic study, Stanford researchers set up shop at an upscale grocery store chosen for its “extraordinary selection” of items, including 300 types of jam. One Saturday afternoon, they set up a sampling booth with 24 jams;…
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