Most fields are a hierarchy of truths with big ideas at the top and laws, rules, and finer details branching off below them. Viewing ideas in isolation, without recognizing the family tree of where they came from, gives a distorted view of how a field works and can overcomplicate what are often simple answers. Beliefs…
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In his new book on decision making, Ed Smith, who was responsible for the selection of the England Men’s cricket team between 2018 and 2021, discusses the challenges of innovative thinking.[i] He quotes poker player Caspar Berry: “Whenever someone innovates in business or in life, they almost inevitably do so by accepting a negative metric that…
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Not like the current equities market that’s for sure. Bul markets have a series of unique internal dynamics that drive them along – the most obvious of these is that the stocks within a given index continue to make new highs. These new highs are manifested in the index by it trending up. The chart…
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Kate Baecher and her mountaineering group were being guided over a dangerous traverse in Europe a few years ago when a climber in the party ahead of them fell hundreds of feet to her death. Baecher, a Sydney-based psychologist, military veteran, and avid mountaineer with a background helping people perform in high-stress situations, kept her cool…
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Quite rightly much of the chatter regarding currencies this week has centred around the goings on in crypto clown land. In the real world away from the land of magic beans and disappearing accounts The US Dollar Index has been breaking down. It looks as if at least in the short term that the exceptional…
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No idea – now that we have gotten that out of the way it is interesting to look at two competing narratives that have arisen as a result of last night’s action on U.S. markets. The first interpretation is given by the table below which looks at the performance of the S&P 500 post any…
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The interesting feature of highly speculative issues such as BTC is that in a very short space of time you were able to observe a large range of maladaptive trader behaviours. I can guarantee that when I initially posted my original chart showing that BTC was in congestion but was also in a volatility squeeze…
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