One of the things that has always amazed me about financial markets is the apparent lack of numeracy I see in many of its participants. As an example consider the table below which looks at gains made in the subsequent years by the S&P500 when it has been down 25% or worse in a given…
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From the time of Aristotle through to the 1500s, the dominant model of the universe had the sun, planets, and stars orbiting around the Earth. This simple model, however, did not match what could be seen in the skies. Venus appears in the evening or morning. It never crosses the night sky as we would…
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Much of the focus on the dramatic and unprecedented sell-off in gilt markets this week has been centred on the technical factors that led to an intervention from the Bank of England, potentially worth £65bn. Whilst the tribulations of the Liability Driven Investment strategies used by pension schemes are both fascinating and concerning, these periods…
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The market rallied early this morning for reasons nobody understands and nobody predicted. CNBC analysts confidently asserted it had something to do with the Senegalese money supply but others pointed to revised monthly figures showing a poor tuna haul off the Peruvian coast. The Dow turned down in late morning due to profit-taking—which is a…
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