If you have ever wondered how markets work or how simple behaviours can lead to vastly complex outcomes consider this video on murmuration in starlings. Murmuration is simply a gathering of starlings – this behaviour is rarely caught on film but it is the product of two simlpe rules. Keep up and don’t bang into…
Traders make trading harder than it should be – it seems that all traders move towards a point of maximum complexity, followed closely by maximum confusion. Listening to a lot of the chatter recently people seem to be trying to trade when there is no clear reason to be trading. There is no rule that…
Apropos my last piece on superfunds I was pondering why they are so ordinary and I remembered a piece I did on this many years ago which I have reproduced below. Wall Street relies on “stock analysts.” These are people who do research on companies and then, no matter what they find, even if…
Whilst munching on my toast and vegemite and playing with my tablet (not a euphemism) I saw this neat little paragraph on news.com.au – Superannuation fund analyst Superratings’ figures show that annual returns for the median “balanced” super fund sector, which accounts for about 80 per cent of Australia’s $1.3 trillion super industry, averaged just…
The Telegraph – Staff are understood to have received quarterly bonuses last Monday. It is not clear whether the bonuses were also received by staff in the US. The news is likely to anger those MF Global customers who have still been unable to access money they held with the broker It is not surprising that…
When you wander into the work of Kahneman and Tversky far enough, you come to find their fingerprints in places you never imagined even existed. It’s alive in the work of the psychologist Philip Tetlock, who famously studied the predictions of putative political experts and found they were less accurate than predictions made by simple…
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