Anyone who has been to Vancouver will attest to the fact that it is a magnificent city – one of the few places where you can go sailing in the morning and skiing in the afternoon. In recent years it has been in the grip of a ferocious property bubble that puts the ones seen…
Excellent paper by VoxEU.org on behaviour around what are considered improbable events. Predicting the improbable Claus Bjørn Jørgensen Sigrid Suetens Jean-Robert Tyran 22 April 2011 Japan’s trio of tsunami, earthquake, and nuclear disaster has left the world stunned. As this column points out, even the experts were shocked. But while these events were highly unlikely,…
I enjoy capitalism and capitalism via trading because it gives you almost immediate feedback as to your success or failure – there is no need to wait a round to see how things went. The one thing that does give me a chronic case of the squirts is corporate welfare, we have already had the…
I always find it intriguing that fund managers have to go to such lengths to justify their stance on issues – the interesting point is most of it seems like after the fact rationalisation. This is an example of such long winded thinking, unfortunately it also contains that the use of rational economic thinking to…
If I am reading this correctly, what they are saying is that forecasting is a waste of time. Perhaps they should have consulted the extensive work of Philip Tetlock before going to the trouble.
Someone dropped this wonderfully insightful image into my inbox this morning. Apparently it dates back to 1908 – my interpretation of this is that sheep, be they those who just follow or those without a committed opinion get run over by those that do when markets begin to move.
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