Here is an example of why geopolitical events are hard to trade even when you get a strong signal. I exited with a small loss which is the name of the game because it keeps you in the game. From an anecdotal perspective, I do find crude harder to trade than back in the day.…
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When sentiment changes it can change very quickly. This and the related Hang Seng are strong examples of how a ballistic climb is unsustainable and will reverse suddenly.
Why is it so hard at times is a lament known to all traders at all levels of professional development and experience. There are times in all our careers when it seems as if you cannot buy a profitable trade. As an intellectual pursuit trading is not difficult. The rules are quite simple, and they…
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Patience is free but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t come at an unseen cost. Every time you are forced to exercise discipline you are running the tank down a little bit. If I were to use an analogy it is somewhat akin to wandering around a supermarket with a toddler who wants to have…
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In yesterday’s video, I discussed the need for a much cleaner signal before taking any action with crude. Last night generated a nice set of signals across the board. Interestingly my longs in Natural Gas were all stopped out as the market retreated.
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The legendary World War One fighter ace Baron Manfred Von Richtofen was asked before his death what the job of a fighter pilot was. It is reputed that Richtofen replied, “The job of a fighter pilot is to find his enemy and kill him, all else is superfluous”. Initially, it would seem that the comparison…
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The chart below is of NY Cocoa using a 4-hour time frame. It gives a good example of why we wait. Traders moved in on the large bearish candle that took price to that boundary of support only to have the price churn at support for the next…
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Whenever there is an outbreak of violence in the Middle East traders thoughts naturally turn to what will happen with oil. Unfortunately the narrative they generate is clouded by very simplistic assumptions that don’t reflect the reality of trading a commodity such as oil.
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There are too many lessons in this little tale to unpack in a short space of time. However, when I read this piece for the first time, I was reminded of the role of luck. When vast numbers of traders read these, they will ask the question, “Why hasn’t their account done this?” The answer…
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