What About Now?
All of the idiocy I have seen regarding when it might be time to buy prompted me to do a presentation for our Boardroomers but I thought the last slide in the presentation summed up a good part of my thinking.
History Repeats Itself…..Only If You Squint
If there is one thing that this current pandemic has reinforced in me it is that the default setting for the majority of people is moron, from idiots on social media telling us that they predicted a crash five years ago, to conspiracy theorists saying this is just an attempt to short the market and…
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Nikkei Bear Market
If you need further convincing that the notion of just buy was a silly one then consider this chart of the Nikkei. Almost 32 years in drawdown – you need a compelling reason to reenter the market after a savage correction and the notion of just buy is not compelling enough.
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The Generosity of Markets
Trading is a strange profession in that almost all of the traditions, habits and culture surrounding it are unique to the trader. You are free to make up your own beliefs and methods and unleash them upon the market. The end result of this is that most people go off half-cocked. You only have to…
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The Anti Fake Equity Curve
The other day I posted this equity curve that had appeared on social media. This curve is clearly fake because it resembles the climb profile of a QANTAS 737 leaving Melbourne on its way to Sydney – that and the fact that it claims a 97% win rate. Real equity curves display volatility as wins…
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Investors Should Not Be Making Forecasts About Coronavirus
You have to have some sympathy for those strategists working at asset managers and investment banks who spent the tail end of last year writing lengthy outlook pieces for 2020. Although the tomes produced always have an inbuilt redundancy; the onset and spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) has upended all forecasts in a particularly dramatic and…
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