Following on from the posting on why fund managers fail to generate positive alpha . I thought I would look at the notion of cognitive blindness and emotional overconfidence within the domain of prediction. This was prompted by set of predictions I came across for this year by a group known as Bespoke who have produced a…
During our recent trader survey, which looked at the habits of traders, a section offered the chance to ask either myself our Louise a question. In this article, I want to look at some of those questions posed by trader and offer a response to them. How do you manage a loss if e.g.…
I have written before about the possibility that a lack of sleep might be interfering with your ability to make rational decisions whilst trading. However, it now appears that action at the other end may also be playing a role in your inability to be a calm considered and profitable trend follower. According to a…
Some observations. 1. For 1500 years the maximum size of cities was capped at around 450,000 inhabitants. 2. China has always had a massive population advantage over the…
I thought it would be instructive to look at the relative performance of commodities over select time frames and then to look at this in the wider context. For those not familiar with the CRB Index it is a weighted commodity index with the predominant weighting being energy related issues such as crude. This weighting…
Someone dropped this list into my inbox. To steal a line from Churchill, never before in the history of human endevour have so few been paid so much for so little. • Lehman Brothers Chairman and CEO Richard Fuld Jr. sold nearly a half-billion –$490 million – from selling LEH stock in the years before…
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