The previous post about bear market funds and the difficulties they have faced during the current spectacular US bull market fascinated me. My central point of interest is based around the question – why would you bother? There are a few conflicting points that come to mind. Markets in general have strong upward bias. However,…
Imagine losing 80% or more while, all around you, investors are basking in the glory of one of the biggest bull markets in history. Imagine racking up year after year of losses while stocks are going up nearly 400%. That’s what it’s like to run a short-selling fund that hedges against the risk of a…
This is a little quiz prompted by a recent conversation with Matt F who brought these little metrics to my attention. Below is a chart of the Dow and on it I have plotted a simple 3 ATR stop which can serve as a trend indicator. The question is – given the information above would…
I came across this excellent chart the other day. It shows those times in history when the S&P 500 doubled over a ten year period and the trajectory that this doubling took. Source – @morganhousel Much commentary that followed on twitter related to the steady low volatility climb that characterised the latest run and how boring…
Thats right – the company that invented the digital camera and was then send belly up by it is becoming a crypto business. What could possibly go wrong……
Just as December is the month when financial experts…..sorry dickheads make total fools of themselves by making worthless predictions for the upcoming year so January is the month where everybody bangs on about how January predicts the year. Unfortunately, it doesn’t; it is yet another zombie idea that has taken root in the financial community…
The World Federation of Exchanges (yes there is such a thing) keeps a wonderful stockpile of statistics you can trawl through to your hearts content. One that stood out for me was the percentage of the markets capitalisation that was concentrated in the top 5% of stocks. I dropped this data into Excel and generated…
I heard this one the other day. “If you want to know what God thinks of money, just look at the people he gave it to.” – Dorothy Parker I actually have some more to say about this at a later stage but unfortunately most have been subconsciously inoculated by this sort of thing. And…
An incredible year for global health 1. This year, the World Health Organisation unveiled a new vaccine that’s cheap and effective enough to end cholera, one of humanity’s greatest ever killers. New York Times 2. Cancer deaths have dropped by 25% in the United States since 1991, saving more than 2 million lives. Breast cancer deaths have fallen…
According to the media and no doubt fuelled by press releases from the industry itself, superannuation funds are run by geniuses.We know this because they have been trumpeting the fact that they have a a not so crappy year. Note, they have not had a brilliant year where the majority of funds out performed the…
The old aphorism of a picture paints a thousand words is like most sayings chronically overused but sometimes a simple graphic comes along that explains the future with remarkable clarity. The following chart is one such image. Source – Medium The fall in both jobs and oil rigs in 2015 was a function of the…
The following graphic looks at 122 years of Dow Returns. You can find the original here at Albert Bridge Capital. Initially it looks like another infographic that looks pretty but doesn’t say much. However, there are are some interesting points to be drawn from spending a bit of time simply looking at the data. The…
Chasing bubbles during the last stages of their formation results in a much lower return to risk ratio as it is shown below with examples from bitcoin and Amazon stock. Venture capitalists understand diminishing returns and usually cash in after an IPO. But many investors and traders are deceived by charts that appear exponential to…
The markets have gripped my attention for the past 28 years. Even after all this time, I still admire the beauty of a trending chart, as if I was looking at a sparkling jewel on velvet. I know you share my passion. Ready to make this year your best trading year ever? I’m going to…
“Be more confident,” a friend once told me as we made the rounds at a swanky networking event where I felt terribly out of place. Faking confidence is easy: I pulled my shoulders back and spoke louder and with more assertiveness. Like many soft-spoken, mild-mannered people, I’ve spent a great deal of time trying to…
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