Although investing is far noisier and uncertain than most card games, it is also an activity where understanding the odds is critical. While investors may feel uncomfortable talking about their decision making in probabilistic terms, it is inherent in everything we do – whether we are explicit about it or not. Much like assessing our…
Have you ever wondered why the traders who manage your funds fly around in private jets whilst you sit down at the back of the plane? Have you ever been confused as to how your fund can consistently underperform the market but the fund managers make more in a month than you could conceivably make…
Right market right time – in terms of the technical aspects of trading there is perhaps nothing more crucial to a trader than being in the right place at the right time. The best stock selection tools in the world will not save you from being stuck in a market that is going nowhere.
The dominance of US equities has been one of the most significant features of financial markets over the last decade. The sheer magnitude of outperformance makes it easy to claim that it has simply been a case of an in-vogue market enjoying a substantial and unsustainable valuation re-rating, but that’s not quite true. Although a…
Interestingly this post segues nicely from the previous one on Daniel Kahneman and the difficulties we have with thinking of the world rationally. Gold is the perfect exemplar of traders who cannot reason. The chart below is a daily chart of gold which shows that in the last month, gold has risen about 9.2%Its not…
Trading is a profession that taxes our ability to view problems rationally and in a probabilistic manner. Daniel Kahneman highlights this issue in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow. As expected the majority of poorly performing traders believe it is about having the right coloured lines on their charts of hanging off every pronouncement made…
There is endless chatter by traders as to the need for an edge but very rarely does anyone either explain what an edge actually is or put forward examples of how to build them. In this video I define what an edge is, give a real world example from an unrelated highly competitive arena, and…
Over the last turbulent century, the global economy has suffered the shockwaves of recessions and depressions, bubbles and unchecked investor euphoria. And with the UK’s spring budget announced this week, we ask the question – have we learnt from the economic mistakes of the past?
Want to build influence with ideas and simple writing? Look no further than Howard Marks. Most smart people use big words and plastic jargon to reinforce the barrier between themselves and “the common folk.” Howard, on the other hand, breaks down this barrier, and that’s why his ideas are so influential (and why he’s Warren…
Gold lifted suddenly during Friday’s session – this quite naturally caught everyone’s eye. But as with all things in trading, there is a right way and a wrong way to profit from any given move. A quick hint – buying gold might not be the best way.
There is no doubt that trading is a difficult business – there is the illusion presented by the internet and then there is the reality of managing a business day after day. And as with all business progress is not linear – it has ebbs and flows. Unlike the majority of other businesses in trading…
I was struggling. I was in my competitive running days, in the best shape of my life, knocking out workouts I couldn’t imagine, but races were not going well. I just couldn’t put it together. I gave myself one last shot before packing in the bags for that season. In two weeks I was going…
There is an old adage – garbage in, garbage out. Stemming from the world of computer science it is equally applicable to markets. If you are feeding your brain the wrong things then your internal software will be shaped by this and predictably the result of this will be ruinous
Thinking and talking about failure can be tough, especially when it’s us who’s failing. But it’s paramount for us as individuals and teams to find a way to do this in an effective manner that allows us to both learn and evolve.
Since the early years of this century, it has been commonplace for computerized analyses of athletic statistics to guide a baseball manager’s choice of pinch hitter, a football coach’s decision to punt or pass, or a basketball team’s debate over whether to trade a star player for a draft pick. But many sports experts who…
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