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LATEST BLOGS

Wrong Again

I have a bit of a thing for data – I believe that you can bumble through your existence in the main according to the available data. It doesn’t matter whether you are deciding between two medical treatments or two new fridges. Data is helpful – correct data is compulsory. This is particularly true when…

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Trade What You See

One of the most interesting parts of trading is the role of the human brain as an interface between you and the market. Having a complex filtering mechanism that is the repository of all your emotions sitting between you and the raw sources of information you need presents a complication. Consider the image below. This…

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How Stupid Are Australian TV Journalists

It would appear they are very stupid – but then that’s probably not a surprise to anyone. The always entertaining Dr Sabine Hossenfelder points out why. Her channel is well worth subscribing to if for the sole purpose of enjoying her blisteringly sharp intellect mixed with her uniquely German sense of humour.  

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More Hedge Fund Fun

This follows from the chart of hedge fund earners I posted here. Where possible I have matched the salaries to the performance of their funds I then matched this to the performance of the S&P500 Total Return Index. I used the S&P500TR Index because it is the most widely used benchmark in the industry. Where…

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Hedge Fund Returns and Salaries

Following on from my latest video I did a bit more digging and found some convenient data on hedge fund returns and the salaries of the top hedge fund earners according to Bloomberg The chart below is composite data from the Barclays hedge fund index which looks at the returns of 1781 reporting hedge funds.…

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Active Investors Need to Think About the Odds

Although investing is far noisier and uncertain than most card games, it is also an activity where understanding the odds is critical. While investors may feel uncomfortable talking about their decision making in probabilistic terms, it is inherent in everything we do – whether we are explicit about it or not. Much like assessing our…

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Everything is Obvious

The dominance of US equities has been one of the most significant features of financial markets over the last decade. The sheer magnitude of outperformance makes it easy to claim that it has simply been a case of an in-vogue market enjoying a substantial and unsustainable valuation re-rating, but that’s not quite true. Although a…

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Some Observations About Gold

Interestingly this post segues nicely from the previous one on Daniel Kahneman and the difficulties we have with thinking of the world rationally. Gold is the perfect exemplar of traders who cannot reason. The chart below is a daily chart of gold which shows that in the last month, gold has risen about 9.2%Its not…

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