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Moving Beyond Us vs. Them
Both skepticism and wonder are skills that need honing and practice. Their harmonious marriage within the mind of every schoolchild ought to be a principal goal of public education. I’d love to see such a domestic felicity portrayed in the media, television especially: a community of people really working the mix — full of wonder,…
I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means
I keep seeing this chart pop up all over the place as evidence that share prices always go up irrespective of what world events assail us. That is not what it is telling you. It is telling you that indices which are wrought with survivor bias and constructed in such a manner as to deliberately…
Trump, Brexit, and predictions in an age of uncertainty
If 2008 was a sharp reminder that banking matters, then 2016 has reminded us that politics matters too — and, in both cases, the reminder has not been especially welcome. How should economists respond? Until recently, both banking and politics tended to be something of a niche interest in the economics profession. This isn’t quite…
Past Performance Is No Guarantee
This is an interesting way to look at this issue using an everyday comparison. More here – Visual Capitalist.
Apparently I am Not Going To Die
As a regular user of sauna’s to manage post workout soreness I am heartened by this headline. Source – Healthiest Blog
Statistics And Elections
One of the more annoying things about the US election;as if it were at all possible to list all the annoying things in one sopt is the inability of journalists to understand basic statistics. Consider the graphic below which I snipped from the site FiveThirtyEight Most are interpreting this as a lock for the Clinton…
FoMO
For those who are not up with the current vernacular FoMO apparently refers to Fear Of Missing Out. According to Wikipedia FoMO is defined in the following way – Fear of missing out or FoMO is “a pervasive apprehension that others might be having rewarding experiences from which one is absent”.[2] This social angst[3] is…
S&P 500 Gaps
Interesting to note the number of times the S&P 500 has a had a gap reversal out of a downtrend in recent times.
An Interview With Robert J. Shiller on Behavioral Economics
Warburton: So what you’re saying is that traditional economics has focused on an ideally rational individual, asking, “What would such a person do if he or she behaved in their own best interests based on the information available?” But behavioral economics brings in the fact that we don’t always behave in our own best interests.…
Why You Should Never Trust Social Media
There was momentary alarm on Japanese social media overnight after a well-known day trader tweeted news of a press conference announcing the resignation of Kuroda. Some day traders jumped to the conclusion that Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan, was suddenly poised to step down. More here – Bloomberg
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