LATEST BLOGS

Can it be rational to overweight very unlikely events?

Using tools gleaned from behavioral economics to help people make better decisions is all the rage these days. This work is built on the theory that behavioral biases – like the sunk cost fallacy, status quo bias, or the tendency to give outsize attention to very unlikely events – are cognitive mistakes that are holding…

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IPPON

Any regular reader of the blog will know that I am a history buff. I believe that there is nothing new under the sun; the mistakes of today are the mistakes of yesterday with a different cast. I am uncertain as to how it could be any other way due to the repeating fallibility of…

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Starting Dates

The post I did just now on luck got me thinking about the role of luck in trading – specifically the luck of your starting date. This ties in with a bit of playing around with annualised returns I have been doing in markets that have been rubbish. One of the issues with looking at…

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Luck

This is a photo of Jimmy Nicol sitting by himself at Essendon airport on June 15 1964. For those who are not up with their music history Nicol sat in for Ringo Starr for eight concerts whilst Starr was ill with tonsillitis. Apparently he played the drums as well as Starr – the only thing…

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Get Off Ya Bum

A new study of over 1 million people finds that doing at least one hour of physical activity per day, such as brisk walking or cycling for pleasure, may eliminate the increased risk of death associated with sitting for 8h a day. Physical inactivity is linked to an increased risk of heart disease, diabetes and…

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ARE CEOS PAID FOR PERFORMANCE?

The quick answer from the paper embedded below is no. The executive summary is very enlightening in that it states – Has CEO pay reflected long-term stock performance? In a word, “no.” Companies that awarded their Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) higher equity incentives had below-median returns based on a sample of 429 large-cap U.S. companies…

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The Incalculable Value of Finding a Job You Love

Social scientists have been trying to identify the conditions most likely to promote satisfying human lives. Their findings give some important clues about choosing a career: Money matters, but as the economist Richard Easterlin and others have demonstrated, not always in the ways you may think.  Consider this thought experiment. Suppose you had to choose…

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