The chart below has been doing the rounds today. It shows the S&P 500 versus analysts expectations for the index, as you can see analysts are a wildly optimistic bunch. Source – Bloomberg The reasons this has caused so much angst is that it now seems to portray Wall Street as being bearish because the…
Using tools gleaned from behavioral economics to help people make better decisions is all the rage these days. This work is built on the theory that behavioral biases – like the sunk cost fallacy, status quo bias, or the tendency to give outsize attention to very unlikely events – are cognitive mistakes that are holding…
The numbers in this are staggering as are the number of missed opportunities. More here – Visual Capitalist.
Why Inexperienced Investors Do Not Learn: They Do Not Know Their Past Portfolio Performance from Trading Game Pty Ltd
The post I did just now on luck got me thinking about the role of luck in trading – specifically the luck of your starting date. This ties in with a bit of playing around with annualised returns I have been doing in markets that have been rubbish. One of the issues with looking at…
This is a photo of Jimmy Nicol sitting by himself at Essendon airport on June 15 1964. For those who are not up with their music history Nicol sat in for Ringo Starr for eight concerts whilst Starr was ill with tonsillitis. Apparently he played the drums as well as Starr – the only thing…
A new study of over 1 million people finds that doing at least one hour of physical activity per day, such as brisk walking or cycling for pleasure, may eliminate the increased risk of death associated with sitting for 8h a day. Physical inactivity is linked to an increased risk of heart disease, diabetes and…
The quick answer from the paper embedded below is no. The executive summary is very enlightening in that it states – Has CEO pay reflected long-term stock performance? In a word, “no.” Companies that awarded their Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) higher equity incentives had below-median returns based on a sample of 429 large-cap U.S. companies…
What is the one thing that, if you could just get your hands on it, would make you much happier? Go ahead. Get out a piece of paper and write down the first thing that pops into your head. Got it? O.K., now fess up. Who wrote something about a new car? How about a…
Social scientists have been trying to identify the conditions most likely to promote satisfying human lives. Their findings give some important clues about choosing a career: Money matters, but as the economist Richard Easterlin and others have demonstrated, not always in the ways you may think. Consider this thought experiment. Suppose you had to choose…
……What’s Holding You Back? It’s neither intelligence nor technique that holds people back from being successful self-taught learners, says Bach. It’s insecurity. “Feelings of inadequacy stop curiosity,” he says. In Bach’s own field of competitive thinkers, he’s learned that “most people who have ambition have a terrible fear that although they’re good, they’re not good…
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