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LATEST BLOGS

Draw Enough Lines

LB showed me an email she received the other day that contained a chart of the All Ords purporting to show that the markets long term support had held. The only problem with this chart was that it had more lines on it than the ancient carvings at Nazca.  This is the default setting of…

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Ask The Aged

But how should you go about finding a direction? How to settle on a purpose that fits your current life stage? One technique turns out to be immensely valuable – and yet most people ignore it. If you are searching for a direction or purpose, interview your future self. There are in fact a host…

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A Secondary Market For Financial Misconduct

  I have copied the abstract of this paper below. In a nutshell it says that financial misconduct of advisors does have a cost. However, the cost is not as severe as you think since advisors are able to find employment at other firms after being disciplined. The downside of this for the consumer is that sooner…

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The Unbearable Asymmetry of Bullshit

Science and medicine have done a lot for the world. Diseases have been eradicated, rockets have been sent to the moon, and convincing, causal explanations have been given for a whole range of formerly inscrutable phenomena. Notwithstanding recent concerns about sloppy research, small sample sizes, and challenges in replicating major findings—concerns I share and which I…

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How Meditation Changes the Brain and Body

To meditate mindfully demands ‘‘an open and receptive, nonjudgmental awareness of your present-moment experience,’’ says J. David Creswell, who led the study and is an associate professor of psychology and the director of the Health and Human Performance Laboratory at Carnegie Mellon University. One difficulty of investigating meditation has been the placebo problem. In rigorous…

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The 1980’s Are Coming To An End

So I am sitting in the pointy end of an old Ansett bus waiting to be ferried back to Melbourne. A few hours earlier I had been wandering around the offices of a very large and well known Sydney based broker. They had flown me up to talk about setting up a derivatives trading desk. Apparently,…

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Wheat

One of the most devilish conundrums faced by traders is what to do when an instrument they are following gives a valid signal but this signal is either at an all time high or low. Such a situation has recently occurred with wheat, which according to my system gave a valid sell signal as it…

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Not dead, just resting

IN 1990 hedge funds were still rare birds; 500-odd funds managed around $40 billion, mostly for rich individuals. Few people understood what they did or bothered to find out. By the end of 2015, the sector had mushroomed to include nearly 9,000 funds managing roughly $3 trillion. Along with private equity, the industry was classed…

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