I have written often about how appalling the social sciences are at prediction and I include the financial markets within this soft science definition. The chart below shows that intriguingly this is not the case with other sciences – longer term weather forecasts are becoming more and more accurate. The interesting thing is that economists have…
It has been sometime since we had an email of the week. So I offer the following without comment. YES HI LOUISEMY name is ………..I am a researcher YES I research gaming also see my sitewww……….. it is different opportunityI just move to …… two months ago I just purchase my…
If new thoughts about illness and recovery—or old thoughts in new form—have been stimulated by thinking back to my first patients, they have been given an unexpected salience by a very different personal experience in recent weeks. On Monday, February 16, I could say I felt well, in my usual state of health—at least such…
One of the few books in my investment library that I still thumb through on a regular basis is Market Wizards – every other book gets read once and then dumped in the back of the bookshelf. One lesson that I took from Market Wizards was from Stanley Drunkenmillar who used to run George Soro’s…
Nice wheels although we do have vastly different definitions of what entry level means…..click the pic…
We tend to speak of short-termism as though it’s a problem that only afflicts investors or corporate leaders, but that’s not the case. Short-term thinking pervades our most important institutions, from government to households. We’ve created a gambling culture in which we tune out everything except the most immediate outcomes. If we’re going to meet our…
As the average investor or trader who the worlds best investor/trader is and chances are the name Warren Buffett will be thrown around liberally. Unfortunately, like most things the masses believe they are wrong. The best I know of in in this field is Jim Simons who has a truly remarkable public record. The two…
Interesting look at bubbles and the impact of timing upon them. Abstract: Investment manias and financial bubbles have likely existed for as long as humans have been involved in financial markets. In this research piece we take a look at some of the more famous market bubbles in history and the extreme volatility…
What’s worse: Ebola or AIDS? Measles or malnutrition?Lung cancer or low back pain? As individuals, as a nation, and as a global community, where should we focus our time and money to improve lives the most? The way we usually answer these questions is to count the number of deaths: The more people killed, the more important the problem. Counting deaths…
The stress of growing up poor can hurt a child’s brain development starting before birth, research suggests—and even very small differences in income can have major effects on the brain. Researchers have long suspected that children’s behaviour and cognitive abilities are linked to their socioeconomic status, particularly for those who are very poor. The reasons…
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