“It’s 10 pm, I’m going to bed,” is what I told the group of friends, teammates, and strangers who were gathered in our house for a get-together during college. It was a Friday night and I had a long run the next morning. For much of my time, I was a bit obsessive. I wanted…
Market commentary of late has been awash with the use of the word volatility and to flog a dead horse most of the people using the word are using it incorrectly. This misuse is generally a function of ignorance – most who comment on volatility don’t understand what it means. Defined simply volatility is the…
This is a little quiz. Below is a simple weekly chart of NVDA with a 30-period moving average plotted. Moving averages are simple but effective tools for defining the underlying trend of an instrument. The question is can you spot those times when you should be a buyer of NVDA? If you can you are a…
The modern world is full of risks, from natural hazards such as flooding to the existential threat of nuclear war, artificial intelligence and climate change. With the scientific and technological progress of the past few centuries, we’ve created new hazards that threaten our very survival and, in this series, emergency planner and disaster recovery expert…
ASX listings are in a slow but structural decline. In the 10 years to December 2024, the number of ASX-listed equities (domestic and foreign) fell by 4 per cent, from 2073 to 1989. September 2024 marked the first time in 20 years that the total number of ASX-listed equities fell below 2000. Although 67 new…
It is that time of year when traders evaluate their performance in the previous year. In this video, I follow up on a video I posted in early 2024 that cast an eye over the less than stellar performance of one of my shorter-term systems. I look at what worked, what didn’t, and more importantly,…
There has never been a better time to be an investor. We have unprecedented choice, transparency and control. There has also never been a worse time to be an investor. We have unprecedented choice, transparency and control. More here – The Behavioural Investor
As the New Year rolls around the media is once again awash with its annual range of predictions for the year ahead. Despite their complete inaccuracy predictions are unfortunately a dominant art of the economic landscape. This raises the question of why people make predictions even though they know they will be wrong and…
The psychology underlining all high-performance endeavours is universal, and as such, the broad principles can be translated across fields. A recent meta-analysis on the impact of goal setting on performance found the following to be true. Process related goals had a large impact on outcomes. In the trading arena, this would relate to the goal…
1………. Some may miss the irony, but I will have some more to say about predictions and their pointlessness in an upcoming video.
I ran off an early list of ASX top performers for 2024. There are always opportunities – markets are generous that way.
When you remember you are simply a passenger and you leave things alone.
Hendrik Bessembinder’s latest paper asks the question – which US stock has generated the highest long-term returns?[i] The answer is Altria Group (formerly known as Philip Morris). Over 98 years the tobacco company produced a cumulative return of 265,000,000.00 percent! Based on this it would be easy to write about how lucrative it can be…
Here is a quick quiz. Why do the majority of traders trade? If you answered to make a buck then you are unfortunately wrong. The overwhelming evidence is that the majority of traders trade for entertainment value. If allowed to make a lesser gain but trade more versus trading less but making more traders generally…
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