LATEST BLOGS

The Myth of American Meritocracy

Lately I have had a bit of waiting time and I was able to read this article in full. Of the entire piece I found the passage below the most disturbing. As a history buff I am familiar with such behaviour in the old Soviet Union and Germany in the 1930’s where admission to schools…

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We Are Alive

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Rock tours generally have a theme: a band’s coltish arrival, a new style or look, a reunion, a new set of songs, a political moment. Springsteen was salting the show with the political material from “Wrecking Ball,” but the most vivid theme on this tour was to be time passing, age, death, and, if Springsteen…

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Two Surprisingly Related Items

Below is a table I lifted from Bespoke Investment It shows the YTD performance of what could be called analyst’s least loved stocks. You will note that some performed quite poorly but the top five had an average return of about 71% with WHR returning 104.34% The second of my related items is titled simply…

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How To Win At Forecasting

I have done prediction to death (see here) The patron saint of pointing out that experts don’t have clue is Philip Tetlock. This is an extended piece and video with him. It takes a bit to get through but the central message is that models beat experts as evidenced in the recent US election. The…

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So You Think You Can Value A Company Do You?

I must admit having fun with value investors is a somewhat akin to shooting fish in a barrel The hubris required to believe that you and you alone actually know what something is worth and that the market will believe you is extraordinary. Consider the case of HP’s acquisition of software maker Autonomy, they thought…

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Gold

The graphic below is from Thomson Reuters – the original can be found here This is a weekly chart of gold – Take your pick as to which one makes sense to base a decision on…….

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Asian Markets

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I am planning on doing a longer piece on the heterogeneous nature of Asian markets as a function of their cultural and economic background. In the meantime I needed to generate a chart of the comparative performance of the Nikkei, the Hang Seng and the doggy Shanghai Composite over the past year.

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