As the Yanks continue to argue as to how they are going to pay the rent I thought it was time to update my VIX/Dow comparison. The markets seem a little bit skitterish but they are not yet at the levels seen during other crisis events. I have posted both a weekly and daily chart…

Interesting piece on the evolution of overconfidence Confidence is an essential ingredient of success in a wide range of domains ranging from job performance and mental health, to sports, business, and combat. Some authors have suggested that not just confidence but overconfidence-believing you are better than you are in reality-is advantageous because it serves to…

George Soros, the billionaire best known for breaking the Bank of England, is returning money to outside investors in his $25.5 billion firm, ending a career as hedge-fund manager that spanned more than four decades. Soros, who turns 81 next month, will hand back the money, less than $1 billion, by the end of the…

Hedge funds have become a hot topic over the past decade or so, as the number of funds has grown seemingly exponentially along with the increased media attention they’ve received. While most people have a basic understanding of what they are, many investors are not familiar with the underlying types of hedge funds and their…

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Hedge funds have become a hot topic over the past decade or so, as the number of funds has grown seemingly exponentially along with the increased media attention they’ve received. While most people have a basic understanding of what they are, many investors are not familiar with the underlying types of hedge funds and their…

George Soros, the billionaire best known for breaking the Bank of England, is returning money to outside investors in his $25.5 billion firm, ending a career as hedge-fund manager that spanned more than four decades. Soros, who turns 81 next month, will hand back the money, less than $1 billion, by the end of the…

Following on from this post – Freakanomics Radio has an hour long special on the pointlessness of predictions. It’s impossible to predict the future, but humans can’t help themselves. From the economy to the presidency to the Super Bowl, educated and intelligent people promise insight and repeatedly fail by wide margins. These mistakes and misses…

In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move in a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what next big movement is going to be – up or down. Instead of hoping he must fear and instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear…

Superstition appears to arise from situations of uncertainty (Burger & Lynn, 2005; Felson & Gmelch, 1979; Vyse, 1997). Skinner (1948) was one of the first to document’ superstition’ as a way of describing the behaviors pigeons showed when reinforced with food on a fixed time interval. The pigeons were presented with a situation in which…

In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move in a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what next big movement is going to be – up or down. Instead of hoping he must fear and instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear…