It was the end of the world as we knew it, and I felt fine. That’s almost exactly what I told my psychiatrist at my March 16 appointment, a few days after our children’s school district extended spring break because of the coronavirus. I said the same at my April 27 appointment, several weeks after…

I came across a piece titled Retired Surgeons’ Reflections on Their Careers which polled 2295 retired surgeons. The results of the survey are shown below. What is interesting is that over 50% wish they had done things differently. As to be expected spending more time with family came out as the number one regret. I…

This is not directly trading related but if there was a game that mimicked trading it would be golf. A golf game is won by the person who makes the fewest catastrophic error and whose management of their internal game is superior to others. Incremental gains count. I am assuming that they are referring to…

Many years ago, at an investment conference at a prestigious Oxbridge college I sat next to the college bursar at dinner. The conversation inevitably turned to plans for managing the college’s endowment fund. I was too embarrassed to say anything — perhaps I should have done? — but it soon became apparent that the strategy…

I recently read War and Chance by Jeffrey A. Friedman, which considers how foreign policy specialists deal with the uncertainty that surrounds their high stakes decisions.  Friedman focuses on an historic reticence to explicitly discuss either probabilities or confidence levels when making subjective judgements.  Whilst the impact of decisions made around the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden…