The Generosity of Markets
Trading is a strange profession in that almost all of the traditions, habits and culture surrounding it are unique to the trader. You are free to make up your own beliefs and methods and unleash them upon the market. The end result of this is that most people go off half-cocked. You only have to…
The Anti Fake Equity Curve
The other day I posted this equity curve that had appeared on social media. This curve is clearly fake because it resembles the climb profile of a QANTAS 737 leaving Melbourne on its way to Sydney – that and the fact that it claims a 97% win rate. Real equity curves display volatility as wins…
Investors Should Not Be Making Forecasts About Coronavirus
You have to have some sympathy for those strategists working at asset managers and investment banks who spent the tail end of last year writing lengthy outlook pieces for 2020. Although the tomes produced always have an inbuilt redundancy; the onset and spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) has upended all forecasts in a particularly dramatic and…
More Fun With Numbers
Whenever I see a report on the spread of coronavirus it is generally accompanied by a variation of the graphic below. Giant red circles encompassing massive areas of the globe. People see this and quite naturally freak out because it appears as if the world is engulfed in a runaway contagion. What is being shown…
Fake Equity Curves
One of the things that social media has brought about is not only widespread dissemination of uneducated and frankly stupid opinions but also the spreading of outright lies. Below is a copy of an equity curve that appeared on one of my pages. Pay close attention to not only the curve which is the thing…
The Week That Was
A long term historical perspective of the previous week. Click the pic for a big version.
Easiest Question of the Day
I noticed the following headline whilst having brekky at my local. You can read the original piece here in the Melbourne Age. Unfortunately, I would consider most of it wrong since the way you tell when markets have bottomed is to open a chart and look back six months and go….there’s the bottom. The only…
Relative Versus Absolute
One of the things that scream incompetent is the inability to distinguish between what is a relative figure and what is an absolute figure. You most often see this sort of idiocy in the reporting of the risks associated with various events such as diet or drug interventions. For example, consider this statement – eating…
The Zombie Apocalypse Is Upon Us….Apparently
According to the popular press, Australians are racing out to buy hand sanitiser and face masks to protect them from the coming apocalypse. I do wish someone would tell them that neither will help. However, as someone who is fascinated by group behaviour hence my belief that Charles P Kindleberger’s Manias, Panics and Crashes is…
Here’s How Sleep Removes Poisons From Your Brain
The more we learn about sleep, the more important we know it is to brain function. We even know that not enough uninterrupted sleep can increase your risk for Alzheimer’s. New research has shown exactly why that is, and it should be frightening news for anyone who routinely tries to get by on four, five, or even…
Why Walking Helps Us Think
In Vogue’s 1969 Christmas issue, Vladimir Nabokov offered some advice for teaching James Joyce’s “Ulysses”: “Instead of perpetuating the pretentious nonsense of Homeric, chromatic, and visceral chapter headings, instructors should prepare maps of Dublin with Bloom’s and Stephen’s intertwining itineraries clearly traced.” He drew a charming one himself. Several decades later, a Boston College English professor named Joseph Nugent and his…
THE LONGEST RUNNING REPEAT-FOR-FREE TRADING MENTOR PROGRAM IN THE WORLD
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