As newborns, we enter the world by inhaling. In leaving, we exhale. (In fact, in many languages the word “exhale” is synonymous with “dying.”) Breathing is so central to life that it is no wonder humankind long ago noted its value not only to survival but to the functioning of the body and mind and…
Picture this, LB and I are sitting in an inner city restaurant having lunch with a pair of individuals who work in this space. We should have been forewarned by the choice of venue as this was a place where we had meet a broker from Sydney for lunch, who instead of paying the bill…
Brilliant opening quote…. “Forecasting: the attempt to predict the unknowable by measuring the irrelevant; this task employs most people on Wall Street.” The words of Jason Zweig, author of the Devil’s Financial Dictionary, are particularly apt at this time of year. We hear a lot from financial forecasters every January, as strategists prognosticate on what’s in store…
It always struck me that golf and trading were closely related in that in a golf tournament the person who wins is the one who makes the fewest catastrophic errors. And when they make those errors it is the person who manages their mental state afterwards who wins…
Around about now Wall Street and others begin to trot out what their predictions for the coming year are. The latest round of such crystal ball gazing can be found here in an article by Bloomberg called Here’s (Almost) Everything Wall Street Expects in 2019 You can peruse this sort of nonsense at your leisure.However, before…
It is without question that investors now have easy access to more information than ever to guide decision making; optically, this surfeit of data appears to be a positive – who doesn’t want more ‘evidence’ to inform their judgements? Yet there are a number of potential drawbacks, most notably the challenge of disentangling signals from…
In finance you get to hear all sorts of odd things – it must be the type of people the industry attracts. However, some stick in the mind more than others. Some time ago LB and I had a meeting with a group and we discussed numerous ideas, none of which went anywhere, the reason…
Recently on LinkedIn I saw a piece that was extolling virtues of profit taking, a strategy I am vehemently opposed to. The piece used words such as greedy to try and generate some form of emotional response in the reader – as if being greedy is a bad thing. In trading it is the only…
In yesterdays video I talked briefly about eliminating the noise that seems to be so predominant today. Part of this noise tries to generate a cohesive narrative that mixes politics, the economy and the market and to impose a relationship where there is probably none. Governments come and go economies travel in fits and spurts…
Its big, loud, German and stupid…….what more do you need?
I was recently listening to the 100th episode of the Michael Kitces podcast with Joe Duran to learn about how Duran used data analytics to help build and scale a $24 billion wealth management firm. However, it wasn’t the machine learning or the data-driven decision making that stuck with me the most. It was something Duran said at the end of…
When, at the age of 50, John Fenn joined the faculty at Yale, he was old by academic standards. But then again, he was an inveterate late starter. He published his first research paper at 32, a decade after leaving graduate school. He was 35 when he got his first academic appointment, at Princeton, where he started working…
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