One of my mentors is an art dealer. He specializes in art from the middle ages. Last time we met, he showed me a part of his personal collection. Impressed by the size of the collection, I asked how long it took to accumulate everything. He said “45 years,” and then he laughed when I…
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Just as December is the month when financial experts…..sorry dickheads make total fools of themselves by making worthless predictions for the upcoming year so January is the month where everybody bangs on about how January predicts the year. Unfortunately, it doesn’t; it is yet another zombie idea that has taken root in the financial community…
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One of the difficulties that new investors face is the extraordinary range of investing strategies that are presented to them. These strategies are often presented as gospel from what new traders would perceive to be sources of authority. One of the oldest chestnuts that I absolutely abhor is the notion of dollar cost averaging which…
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One of the most interesting things about markets is that they are not an homogeneous ecology – those who lack experience in trading or investing tend to speak about equity markets as if every segment is exactly the same as every other segment. It is obvious that the market is split into segments based upon…
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I can bet you every teenager since the age of the invention of the mass produced car has through that they invented having sex in the back of a car. This is simply the way our cultural memory works – we are disconnected in many ways from the knowledge and experience of those who have…
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The interview in the post below with Daniel Kahneman got me going back over some old links that looked at the application of his and Amos Tversky’s ideas to trading and the chestnut I keep coming up against is the following question. You have been given a choice between either – a. $100 guaranteed, or b.…
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Mathematicians had already developed bookie-beating models that attempt to predict sporting outcomes, but they are hard to devise and don’t perform consistently. So Lisandro Kaunitz at the University of Tokyo and his colleagues tried a more direct approach: using the bookmakers’ odds against them. The team studied data on nearly half a million football matches…
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Investing is hard there is no doubt about that and being an amateur investor is even harder because you have to rely upon the supposed expertise of others. This lack of familiarity with the industry and its nuances combined with a dependence upon others makes life very difficult for those on the outside. However, this…
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Every now and again I get sent a magic trading system complete with equity curve, generally these are some sort of magic system someone is flogging that promises massive returns and never has a drawdown. They are the sort of quit your job with $10,000 and intra-day trade FX and make $10,000 per week. If…
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