One of the things that has always amazed me about financial markets is the apparent lack of numeracy I see in many of its participants. As an example consider the table below which looks at gains made in the subsequent years by the S&P500 when it has been down 25% or worse in a given…
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The other day I had a bit of a dig at a fund manager who was proclaimed a superstar for generating an average return of 9%pa for 15 years. I pointed out that the long term rate of return for the All Ords Total Return Index was 13.2%pa so our superstar was well off the…
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One of the most vexing issues for novice traders is the notion that you will not be right most of the time – in real trading, you will be wrong an awful lot. This notion of being consistently wrong but also successful seems like a paradox that many cannot resolve. It runs counter to all…
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This week, the real estate mogul and billionaire Sam Zell said, “There is a high probability that we are looking at a recession in the next 12 months.” The culprit, he told “Bloomberg Go,” was the strong dollar and slowing global trade, the beginnings of layoffs at multinational companies and a general lack of demand. The bears of…
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As everyone should know I am a great believer in luck playing an invisible hand in the success that many people enjoy. And there does come a time when you can spot luck deserting someone as the need for skill becomes apparent. The hedge fund Tiger Global has lost 66% of all investor gains accumulated…
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One of the eternal truths about trading is that it is conducted by humans and humans are flawed. This is simply the nature of the universe. However, what this means is that all humans irrespective of culture, background, or education are prone to making the same errors. There is a great myth in markets that…
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If ever you find yourself in awe of hedge funds there are two things I recommend you do. Firstly read The Hedge Fund Mirage by Simon Lack Secondly, refer back to this chart.
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