Recently, I happened across an article that claimed that the local markets was going up because volatility had gone up this year. After careful consideration I thought…BULLSHIT. This touches on a topic that always irritates the living daylights out of me – volatility and trend are not the same thing and only people who have…
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One of the things I find most intriguing about going to conferences is watching other speakers simply because their approach to the universe is so different to my own. Most go with the aim of confusing the attendees sufficiently that they believe the notion that said guru is indispensable and they must buy whatever they…
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Recently on the Google box there has been a debate as to whether gold is either a better investment than equities or is in fact actually a hedge against inflation. This debate is interesting because of some of the logical fallacies both sides make in trying to justify their arguments. If you ask the simple…
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I came across this interesting piece on the British Psychological Society website. You can read the article in full at your leisure but I wanted to look at one particular piece of the article. In short the article looks at the gamblers fallacy – that is the notion that after a series of losses that…
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Every so I often I get an email from someone asking whether they should buy or sell a given stock. My answer is always the same I cannot offer you advice and do your own thinking. However, recently I got such a request regarding Echo Entertainment that interested me. As you can see from the…
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I make no secret of the fact that I think that the local market is very short on opportunities for trend followers. In this day and age there is no excuse for not utilising the ability technology gives you to diversify internationally – to not do so is simply lazy. To highlight my point consider…
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It has been sometime since I looked at the comparative performance of various markets. I have taken these markets back to a nominal starting date of 13/03/09 which could be considered the date markets reversed after the GFC.
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I had not intended for my Is The Market Overvalued? piece to become a two parter but I came across the following chart courtesy of the people at Bespoke, who produce a dazzling array of metrics. This chart looks at the number of S&P500 stocks which are above their 50 day moving average.…
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This is a question that tends to get posed at boardrooms and dinner parties any time the market has had an extended run. Whenever, someone poses this question to me, my immediate and somewhat flippant answer is don’t know and don’t care. My response is based upon the notion that I feel it is the…
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