In the first quarter of last year I begin to tinker with my short term system – in fact the tinkering was so extreme that it essentially became a brand new system. Fortunately, this tinkering coincided with a the onset of a new financial year so I have a full year of data to review…
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Apparently according to financial journalists the Shanghai Composite is now officially in a bear market because it has fallen the mandatory 20%. I do wish they would pay attention to what is actually happening. The first chart below shows my usual value of $1 invested i the index. As you can see the glory days…
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Since I had a look at the MaxDD for MNF yesterday I thought it would be interesting to see the same for BTC. One of the arguments put forward by BTC fetishists is that BTC would display lower volatility than other currencies or payment methods. Somehow I dont think this claim stacks up, not unless…
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It is often the preserve of finance journalists to suffer from the almost terminal affliction of hindsight bias – this sort of creeping determinism that some things were obvious all along. Recently I came across an excellent example of this whilst trawling for an online chart on Yahoo Finance. The piece breathlessly claims How buy and…
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I have been playing around with the comparative returns from various local indices – this is what happens in Melbourne when the weather turns to shit and I get bored. It has long been known or at least should be that market selection is a cornerstone of effective trading. One of the reasons why domestic…
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I am currently in the process of adding the finishing touches to our upcoming seminar series and in doing so I was looking at the notion of long term wealth creation and why it is so hard for traders to simply sit still and not doing anything when the market is running in their favour.…
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Whilst driving home yesterday I had the misfortune of hearing an ambulance chaser on the radio touting for AMP shareholders to be involved in a class action over the destruction of shareholder wealth caused by the revelations in at the current Royal Commission and this prompted me to think what shareholder wealth and what destruction.…
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Traders are often afflicted by many psychological maladies, foremost amongst them is their remarkably short memories. This is particularity true on the sell side of the industry where those flogging various products seem to have the attention span that is worse than a goldfish. Allied to this is the basic thickness some people have when it comes…
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The previous post about bear market funds and the difficulties they have faced during the current spectacular US bull market fascinated me. My central point of interest is based around the question – why would you bother? There are a few conflicting points that come to mind. Markets in general have strong upward bias. However,…
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