Following on from my post on the Dow following the events of last week comes this analysis by the WSJ on how investors react to bad news. I agree with the general sentiment however I think the 13.5% experienced during the Israeli invasion of Gaza owes more to the market being in the…
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The recent pronouncement by Glenn Stevens the head of the RBA that the AUD was way too high and that real estate was stuffed piqued my interest the RBA’s ability to forecast. In doing a bit of research I came a across a document by the Treasury that sought to access the forecasts and methodology…
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Whilst puddling around today I heard on the radio that Glenn Stevens the head of the RBA had issued a dire warning for just about everything. I have to admit I wasn’t paying attention because this is the same group that has predicted 17 of our past 3 recessions but I decided to look up…
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This piece coincides nicely with a book I have just finished reading called The Importability Principle by David J Hand which disappointingly is actually quite dull. Although it does do a good job of explaining the inevitability of single people winning lotteries multiple times. Get enough people doing the same thing for long enough and…
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I love a bit of data analysis.
As expected we ship most of our dirt to China – pity that China seems to be stuffed. The original article can be found here – Euromonitor International
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A central tenet in modern economics is that crashes do not happen; we all know that they do . Therefore, the maxim should be restated as crashes are not supposed to happen according to the models we have. In fact modern economic theory be it the Efficient market Hypothesis or the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium are…
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I was doing the Market Wrap yesterday for Talking Trading and in my usual look at markets I noticed that the arse had effectively fallen out of volatility in the markets I was looking at. I have dropped in a chart below which shows the 30 day HV of a variety of instruments, I have…
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