Bitcoin’s sudden rise has people thinking about the ludicrous heights that tulips achieved in the Netherlands in the 1630s. At the peak of that bubble, a single tulip bulb could cost more than ten times a craftsman’s annual salary. While some of these prices were “justified” by market forces—the rarest breeds were enviable luxury goods—the…
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LB and I caught up with the funds management crew at RED the other day and were able to attend one of their client briefings. They were kind enough to allow me to copy their slide deck. The take home points for me. 1. Equities have positive momentum. 2. The great unknown at present is…
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It has been sometime since I looked at the comparative performance of various markets. I have taken these markets back to a nominal starting date of 13/03/09 which could be considered the date markets reversed after the GFC.
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I had not intended for my Is The Market Overvalued? piece to become a two parter but I came across the following chart courtesy of the people at Bespoke, who produce a dazzling array of metrics. This chart looks at the number of S&P500 stocks which are above their 50 day moving average.…
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This is a question that tends to get posed at boardrooms and dinner parties any time the market has had an extended run. Whenever, someone poses this question to me, my immediate and somewhat flippant answer is don’t know and don’t care. My response is based upon the notion that I feel it is the…
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Whilst travelling during the week I was asked by someone what is the single most practical thing a trader can do to give themselves an edge. The question has an easy answer – trade in the direction of the prevailing trend. As easy as it is most people ignore it completely and all fund managers…
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We are rational, self-interested optimizers: Homo economicus. So the neoclassical model of economics has held for over a century. It has been a fruitful model, at the heart of the discipline’s most profound theories, predictions and policy prescriptions. According to Richard Thaler, it is also flawed. Humans in the real world, Thaler points out, behave…
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