I am intrigued at the constant doom and gloom talk around the property market, not because I have any particular view on property since what I know about property could be written on a gnats arse with a six inch nail. However, I do know a lot about markets and systems and their natural ebbs…
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In the past week a paper titled Dynamical Variety of Shapes in Financial Multifractality has been doing the rounds. The abstract of the paper states – The concept of multifractality offers a powerful formal tool to filter out a multitude of the most relevant characteristics of complex time series. The related studies thus far presented…
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You stand before three closed doors. The doors are evenly spaced and appear identical, aside from being numbered from 1 to 3. One of the doors conceals a car, while each of the other two doors conceals a goat. The host of this game, Monty Hall, asks you to select a door. If you select the…
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With equity markets performing reasonably poorly in the short term I thought it may be instructive to look at the YTD performance of a basket of markets. The snip below is from Finviz.com a handy little website that generates performance metrics over time. The unfortunate thing about being an equities only trader is that you are…
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Sports analogies often help us think about how we make investing decisions. Are there streaks in random data? Do past results affect future ones? And most importantly, if you know people have certain biases, what can you do to get a leg up? In this episode, hosts Dan Villalon and Gabe Feghali talk to AQR Principal and…
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The thing that got me thinking about this idea was a piece that flashed briefly across one of my aggregators about which was better Coke (KO) or Pepsi (PEP) and I dont mean in the ways of the old Pepsi challenge that some of us would remember. To be honest I didn’t pay it much…
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The most telling part of the piece – The least-gifted children of high-income parents graduate from college at higher rates than the most-gifted children of low-income parents.” No doubt this is a universal phenomena. The graphic below shows that the raw material for being successful is evenly distributed across socio-economic groups but the expression of…
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With the US market having a conniption overnight I thought I would play with excel at look at those periods where the market had fallen by 2% or more in a session. The first thing I noticed was how few falls there are of this magnitude or greater even going back to 1950. As you…
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