One of the things that most surprised me when I moved into finance as a profession (I use the term loosely) was the stunning lack of evidence for most of the things that were spoken about. My observation was that this lack of substantiation seemed to be a vertically integrated industry. Nobel Prizes were handed…
I seem to be spending a fair bit of time talking about returns either via email, PM or via the blog. The most common question I get seems to revolve around the simple idea of what can I expect and is X figure realistic. This figure is generally a number that is wholly unrealistic in…
Bored with the usual headline of the looming war with China, North Korea, Russia and the Packenham Upper Under 12B’s the Murdoch press has now turned its hyperbolic panic based radar onto the housing market. Apparently that house you bought last year for $3M is now worth one ugly camel, a distributor from a Datsun…
It may sound weird but I really like playing with software that simulates distributions – it probably comes from when I had a semester free at Uni and simply took subjects that looked interesting. One of the ones I dropped into was Mathematical Ecology which is largely the mathematics of natural distributions. I found it…
The opinion research organization Ipsos MORI conducted a detailed survey of 26,489 people across 28 countries that gives us an answer.1 Most people think global poverty is rising when in fact the opposite is happening The first chart shows how the surveyed people answered the following question: “In the last 20 years, the proportion of the world…
Apparently according to financial journalists the Shanghai Composite is now officially in a bear market because it has fallen the mandatory 20%. I do wish they would pay attention to what is actually happening. The first chart below shows my usual value of $1 invested i the index. As you can see the glory days…
Institutional Investor have just published their latest list of the top hedge fund earners from 2017. To make things easier I have converted the list into the table show below. The return column is the return for 2017 from the groups highest performing fund. I then decided to reorder the table based upon performance. I…
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